Opinions are split on whether Prime Minister Stephen Harper's absence will even be noticed.

To attend the Beijing Olympics opening ceremonies or not has become more than a simple bit of summer vacation planning for leaders around the world, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, over the past few weeks.

While world leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy, U.S. President George W. Bush, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda have all stated they will be attending, Mr. Harper has been steadfast on his decision to not attend.

The debate over whether Mr. Harper can and should skip-and give the appearance of boycotting-China's grand party has sparked criticism from opposition members and newspaper editorialists within Canada. But many argue that the bilateral relationship is unlikely to teeter on this one event, adding that the government has started taking diplomatic steps in other areas to improve relations.

Since coming to office in 2006, Mr. Harper has put human rights and democracy at the forefront of his government's public engagement with the Chinese government, prompting some observers to warn that this is the wrong approach to take with one of the world's emerging economic powerhouses.

In an op-ed in the Globe and Mail in May, former deputy minister of foreign affairs and director of the Canada China Business Council Peter Harder wrote that Canada-China business relations were, in fact, taking a hit as a result of poor bilateral relations.

Liberal Foreign Affairs critic Bob Rae last week argued Canada needs "to engage" with the Asian nation, "don't rebuff China."

But in an interview with CTV last week, International Trade Minister Michael Fortier dismissed the idea that bilateral and trade relations would suffer as a result of Mr. Harper's absence at the ceremonies on Aug. 8.

"To assume that [just] because a person is there, then therefore trade and the relationship with that particular country will improve...is very naive," Mr. Fortier said. "I think a relationship with a country is far more complex than that. I like the foundations of what we have with China."

Brock University political science professor and China expert Charles Burton, however, says Mr. Harper's decision not to attend won't be a big deal because Canada ranks so low on China's radar at the moment, the prime minister's absence probably doesn't matter for relations in the long-run.

"I don't perceive that the Chinese government will necessarily take it so seriously that the Canadian prime minister's not there. I don't think it's something they regard as all that important, and I don't see it having any meaningful impact on the bilateral relationship," Mr. Burton said. "To be frank about it, Canada is just not an important country."

Mr. Burton speculated that Mr. Harper likely feels that Canada should stand by some principles in applying its foreign policy. Because the opening ceremonies are very much a celebration of the host nation, and given Mr. Harper's concerns over China's international and domestic human rights, Mr. Burton suggests the prime minister may indeed feel strongly about not personally attending.

"So if the prime minister was to attend, it could be giving a tacit statement of agreement with the way the Chinese government has been behaving in international and domestic human rights concerns in recent times," Mr. Burton said, referring to recent actions related to Burma and Sudan as examples.

He said Mr. Harper may not wish to be depicted shaking hands with senior Chinese Communist leaders at the Olympics "when the Olympics really doesn't have anything to do with the Canada-China bilateral relationship as such."

What, if anything, is to be gained by not attending, however, remains unclear, said Gregory Chin, senior fellow at the Waterloo-based Centre for International Governance Innovation.

"Personally I don't think there's a lot to be gained by him not going," Mr. Chin said. "I think the approach is engagement to gain influence-I think probably there is more to be gained by the prime minister engaging more fully."

While Mr. Chin did not speculate on what influenced Mr. Harper to skip the ceremonies, he expressed concern the decision may have been taken without recognizing how much meaning Beijing has attached to the Olympics.

"The idea of the Olympics for Beijing is symbolic and important in terms of China regaining it's so called rightful place in the world," Mr. Chin said.

To mitigate any harm, Mr. Chin said, the government has made a serious effort to communicate through bureaucratic channels that Canada does not support a boycott, reflecting a changing policy toward relations with China.

"I think there's been a recognition recently by the current government that it would be essentially in Canada's interest to improve the bilateral relationship," Mr. Chin said.

Indeed, unrelated to the opening ceremonies, senior researcher at the Asian Institute at University of Toronto's Munk Centre Bernie Frolic said he, too, has heard "whispers of improvement recently" on relations between the Conservative government and China's administration.

"Harper and Hu Jintao apparently talked for 45 minutes at the G-8 Summit," Mr. Frolic said in an e-mail. "Still, Harper is the only Canadian prime minister since we established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China in l970 not to have visited China. [I] am not aware of any plans for him to do so."

When asked repeatedly why Mr. Harper had decided he would not go to the Olympics, press secretary Kory Teneycke referred to comments the prime minister made in early April at the NATO Summit in Bucharest, Romania.

At the time, Mr. Harper told reporters he had never planned to attend the ceremonies. At the same time, he said that despite the growing debate over whether leaders should boycott, he did not think there was a global desire to shun the event.

Although Mr. Harper did not elaborate on his decision to stay clear of the ceremonies, he did make comments about the situation unfolding at that time in Tibet and China's responsibility there if the administration wanted to avoid criticism.

"I would continue to urge China to respect human rights and peaceful protests not just in Tibet but everywhere," Mr. Harper said. "I would also encourage the government of China to understand that its growing wealth, its growing importance in the world and of course the profile of the Olympics will put a greater and greater spotlight on its record in this regard.

"My advice-I know the government of China is not typically taking my advice-my strong advice would be to take these concerns seriously because I think they are likely to grow rather than diminish if we see a repetition of the current pattern," Mr. Harper said.

When asked if Mr. Harper's comments were reflective of what influenced his decision, Mr. Teneycke steered clear of making any direct links between the two.

"Stick with what he said, look at his words and use that," Mr. Teneycke said on Monday. He refused to release Mr. Harper's schedule for that week in August, citing long-standing policy that they release the prime minister's schedule in advance only when necessary.

In place of his personal attendance, Mr. Harper said he would be sending a high level delegation to the games, and recently announced that Foreign Affairs Minister David Emerson and Secretary of State for Sport Helena Guergis, will represent the Canadian government in Beijing on Aug. 8.

Mr. Teneycke said that in their respective roles, Mr. Emerson and Ms. Guergis were chosen because they are the ministers most directly responsible for relations, and for Canada's sports programs.