With international powers staking their claims in the Syrian quest to end the bloody rule of dictator Bashar al-Assad, there is growing concern the internal conflict may drag the entire region into the quagmire of war. 

Assad’s tenuous reign of terror is continuing with tacit backing from Iran and Russia, all while Western powers and the Arab League simultaneously condemn and sanction the regime. 

Meantime, the regional balance of power has already been disrupted by the Arab Spring, the American withdrawal from Iraq and Iran’s aggressive nuclear ambitions. 

“The potential is there to see regional intervention and it could get out of hand really quickly if all the factors are going to play a more active role,” said Houchang Hassan-Yari of the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s University. 

After nine months of mostly peaceful rebellion, Syria has seen sharp escalations in armed clashes as more people defect from the army. The United Nations estimates more than 5,000 people have been killed in the country of 22 million. 

Still, Russia supports the reformation of the regime and has blocked U.N. Security Council resolutions on Syria, hesitant to see the same kind of decree that allowed troops into Libya. 

Syria is a key part of Russia’s bid to restore its reputation as an international heavyweight, not to mention an important buyer of Russian arms. 

“By keeping Assad’s regime going, Russia is helping itself have a foot in the region,” said Hassan-Yari. 

That region includes the only seaport Russia can use to access the Mediterranean Sea. The Syrian port of Tartus, once a Soviet naval base, regularly hosts Russian warships. 

Recent reports say Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov is headed to the base currently in a bid to deter violence, while U.S. nuclear aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush is rumoured to be anchored off Syria. 

“(Syria) was a way in which (Russia) could undermine American influence in the Middle East,” says Aurel Braun, a Middle East expert at the University of Toronto. 

Russia’s posturing over Syria plays out positively in the domestic arena as well, giving President Vladimir Putin a way to distract his citizens from the dismal economy and allegations of corruption. 

Despite the war of words, Braun said it is unlikely Russia will act. 

“Russia can’t afford a military confrontation,” he said. “There could be a lot of bluster, suggestion or threats from Russia, but I do not see Russia getting involved in real military action.” 

Russia is also suspected of helping Iran build a nuclear program, ambitions that add extra instability to the region. 

Iran has threatened to hit NATO’s missile defence systems in Turkey if the U.S. or Israel attacks the country in a bid to stop the alleged secret weapons experiments. 

Turkey shares a long border with Syria and is home to a Kurdish minority that is being agitated by the Assad regime. 

Turkey has hinted it might create a safe haven within Syria, a move likely targeted at preventing mass Kurdish refugee flows, although the step would require NATO support. 

The treaty organization also has 24 bases including the sourthern European air command in Turkey, raising the stakes of increasing tensions with Iran and Syria. Tehran also happens to be one of Syria’s few regional allies. 

“The survival of the Assad regime is a major and supreme interest for the Iranian regime,” said Hassan-Yari. “If the regime falls then that would add even more pressure on Iran and more isolation.” 

Nima Khorrami Assl, a security analyst at Transnational Crisis Project in London, predicted in an editorial for Al-Jazeera that the rivalries will become the new normal in the Middle East.

“And as this new order takes shape, one can be certain that there will be more instability ahead, and the greatest challenge facing these would-be powers will be the regulation of their rivalries,” Assl wrote. 

The fact that so many interests are at stake in the Syrian conflict may prevent international war, argues David Welch of The Centre for International Governance Innovation. 

“It’s a complicated, rough neighbourhood, but it is messy in a way that may actually prevent it from spilling over,” he said. 

Despite their posturing, no external forces have tangibly invested in any one regime, Welch said, adding that NATO is unlikely to get involved on the heels of its mission in Libya. 

Welch did say violence could destabilize the region, but only if it spreads. 

“There is this strong unstated international consensus around the importance of making sure this gets contained within Syria and doesn’t spread,” he said. 

The Syrian uprising has already lasted for nine months and Braun said while it may be possible to avoid conflict, bloodshed within Syria, extremist neighbours and a headlong rush for nuclear weapons in Iran are dire warning signs. 

In the end, avoiding war may come down to whether the rebels can overthrow the regime, keeping the battle internal, or whether Assad stays in power, killing more people, and thus prompting international action by friends and foe.