A Nightmare Scenario for The London Conference
A Nightmare Scenario for The London Conference
By Nasim Fekrat (in Pennsylvania, U.S.)
The London Conference will be held today -- Thursday, January 28, 2010. At this conference, the international community is coming together to fully align military and civilian resources behind an Afghan-led political strategy. It is a crucial moment for the Afghan government, which still has not fielded a full cabinet, after many of President Karzai’s second set of cabinet picks were rejected by the Afghan parliament just two weeks ago. This is not the only conundrum that Karzai is grappling with – he is also facing intense criticism from civil society NGOs inside Afghanistan who are advocating for women’s rights.
In the last few days, while the Afghan government was preparing for the London conference, a number of civil society organizations – which are mostly backed by western countries in Afghanistan – have openly questioned President Karzai over his policy towards the Taliban. Karzai is going to the London conference with a preplanned request that the international community and especially the United Nations rub off the names of prominent and notorious Taliban figures from terrorism lists.
Karzai is determined to plead for mercy for Taliban leaders from the international community in order to pave the way for talks with the Taliban. This has provoked grave concerns among Afghans who suffered under the control of Taliban, especially women, who have lacked basic rights to education and have faced constant mistreatment by the Taliban.
Now, the concerns of Afghan women, who make up 50 percent of the Afghan population, have raised serious questions about how the London conference will guarantee that women will retain their rights. And how these rights that they have worked hard for nine years to achieve – a relief after the harsh realities they faced under the brutal Taliban regime – will be respected by Taliban leaders who may eventually form part of the government?
Nasim Fekrat is the editor of the Afghan Lord blog. He is now a student at Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.
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Hi Nasim,
(Will post response on home blog, too.)
As your colleague also covering the conference, I've posed aspects of this question recently in London. Former Interior Minister Ali Jalali confirmed that the proposed negotiations with the Taliban would not lead to a formal unity government, neither side would accept the details.
Instead, the effort is meant to present options to Taliban leaders as a means of convincing moderate followers that they have options other than fighting or fleeing. The moderates would only be invited into the government if they accepted the core principles it holds. The leadership will likely refuse, so maybe it is a kind of bluff.
He confirmed that ultimately the hardline Taliban leaders (also, assuming their Al Qaeda donors) will not wish to nor be invited into the government but would simply need to be contained.
Probably, from my analysis, this would offer a best-case scenario of something like the FARC in Colombia? There are too many extremely committed opposers to reintegrate, arrest, or expel, so they would likely be fought and contained in a de facto autonomous zone for years will the central government consolidates and rebuilds the remaining 90% of the country. This last part is my prediction based on the interviews.
What do you think?
Daniel
www.danieljgerstle.com
http://war.change.org
www.Twitter.com/HELO_Magazine
Friday
January 29, 2010
9:21 am
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