Pierre Siklos discusses the challenges facing central banks as they struggle to balance monetary policy and financial stability. Money Mischief is inspired by Milton Friedman's book of the same name, which offers historical examples of what monetary policy can and cannot do.
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Torn Apart at the Seams: Is Europe Failing?

May 14, 2013
The news from Europe is scarcely getting better. Germany and the rest of the EU are locked in a battle about how to introduce a banking union and mechanisms not only to end ‘too big to fail’ but also to provide funds for future bailouts, if necessary. Indeed, in an about face, we have moved from relying on bailouts to deal with financial crises to bail-ins.

The Gift that Keeps on Giving

May 1, 2013
It is now almost three years ago since Greece’s government announced an austerity package that promised to reduce a budget deficit that was at least 4 times larger than the then agreed to limit under the Stability and Growth Pact. A promise was made to reduce the deficit to the requisite 3% threshold by 2012. We all know that such a promise could not be kept and deficits will no doubt exceed the wished for EU maximum for several years to come. Meanwhile, new austerity measures continue to be introduced. While Greece no longer makes the headline (as much), this is not because all is well in that country. Instead, Europe has turned its attention to Italy and Spain. The government is dysfunctional in the former country while Spain keeps recording staggering levels of unemployment (over 27% at last count).

Nothing But Blue Skies?

April 29, 2013
At the recent G20 meeting, policy makers turned a blind eye to Japanese monetary easing and its impact on the yen exchange rate. In the meantime, Japan’s Finance Minister, Taro Aso, writing in the Financial Times, heralded his government’s attempt to reverse ‘stagnation’ and end the deflation that current Japanese policy makers believe is the source of all their ills.

Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?

March 25, 2013
It has been a remarkable few months for the euro. The unemployment rate continues to rise, reaching a new record it seems month after month. Austerity continues apace even if the same shenanigans used to destroy the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) are once again resurfacing as some countries strain to keep their promise to reduce deficits as required by the new and improved SGP negotiated last year. Yet, since last August, when the European Central Bank introduced its Outright Monetary Transactions policy, or OMT, effectively circumventing the Maastricht prohibition against the euro area central bank acting as a lender of last resort, calm has come over financial markets.

Phoney Currency Wars

March 19, 2013
Guido Mantega, Brazil’s Finance minister, in 2010 revived the charge that some countries are relying on currency depreciation to improve their balance of trade, using it to revive their economic fortunes. Economists also refer to this as a ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policy. There are a number of interesting features associated with the currency war argument.

Abenomics and the Politics of Cheap Talk?

February 25, 2013
By the time this post appears we may well know who will be nominated to replace the current governor of the Bank of Japan who, along with two deputy-governors, will relinquish his position a few weeks before his term is due to expire. Clearly, the current senior management is being swept away as a consequence of the recent change in government in Japan.

The ‘Politics’ of Policy Regimes

February 19, 2013
One casualty of any major economic crisis is that observers, if not policy makers, begin to fault the monetary regime in place. So it is with inflation targeting (IT). One of the latest examples of this phenomenon is the recent article by Martin Wolf whose title claims that the regime that aims to maintain price stability has “failed”. He then goes on to argue that his change of mind is because it has failed to be equated with economic stability.

Crocodile Tears?

February 6, 2013
In an earlier post I discussed the various pressures on central banks and threats to their independence. For the most part, however, central bankers shied away from bemoaning the state of affairs some of them find themselves in. This is changing. At the Allied Social Sciences Association conference held in January, there were two sessions on the topic of central bank independence.

The EU as a Cafeteria

January 24, 2013
With Britain considering a referendum on EU membership the focus shifts away, temporarily, from worries over the euro zone’s own myriad challenges (not to worry these will return in the Spring when growth in the euro zone fails to return and we edge closer to a German federal election).

The Promise and Peril of Central Bank Independence?

January 2, 2013
When the history of monetary policy over the past five years is written, the observers that look back will ask whether 2013 marked the beginning of the end of central bank independence. For decades, rules were increasingly put into place to clarify the relationship between a central bank and government. Day to day decisions would be entirely left in the hands of central bankers. Longer term policy strategy was to be decided by the politicians, preferably in consultation with the policy experts. We have been seeing some of this understanding being turned on its head as central bankers appear to be taking the lead in developing and implementing new policy strategies, it seems by default.

The Eurozone in 2013: A Big Zero?

December 18, 2012
The end of the year is nearly upon us and while the world wonders how much US fiscal policy will tighten sharply next year – fiscal cliff or not – prospect in the world’s second largest economy, the eurozone, do not look promising. The November Consensus forecast for eurozone real GDP growth (the latest available data at the time of writing), based on a mean of 26 forecasts, is zero percent growth for 2013.

EMU Reform Proposals Land with a Thud

December 5, 2012
Late in November the European Commission’s President, José Manuel Barroso, presented "A blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union." The proposals for a renewed EMU – here meaning Economic and Monetary Union – barely attracted the attention of the media.

On Committees and Openness

November 28, 2012
The surprise announcement on Monday that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney would become the next Governor of the Bank of England has quite rightly emphasized that the appointment will be a challenging one. However, much of the media seems to have focused on Governor’s performance in the area of monetary policy and his reputation among central bankers. Yet, one of the reasons Governor Carney was sought after is because of his organizational skills. In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–9 the Bank of Canada has redistributed a considerable amount of resources towards financial stability issues. As the Bank of England resumes oversight not only over monetary policy, but also over matters dealing with financial stability, the resulting reorganization of the Bank of England will surely be one of Governor Carney’s most important challenges.

Where Do We Go From Here? Avoiding the Never Ending Financial Crisis

November 14, 2012
At the recently completed CIGI ’12 Conference, Five Years After the Fall, I had the pleasure of chairing a session on Global Financial Regulation and International Governance of Global Capital Flows. Part of the remit of that session was, “The … session will focus on attaining a suitable international regulatory framework for successful global financial integration. Such a framework would reduce the risk of future crises and ensure financing for the investment and innovation that will drive growth going forward.”

Europe’s Existential Moment?

November 5, 2012
In a few days time CIGI ’12 will be held in Waterloo. While the topics cover a wide range of governance issues, it is clear that international governance questions (notably in the financial sphere) will play an important part. At the risk of neglecting some of the governance challenges facing the international community, it is worth devoting a little space to how developments in Europe are coloring the global community’s ability to deal with the many other economic governance problems it faces.

Losing Their Credibility? Part IV: What’s next for monetary policy in Canada?

October 15, 2012
If the data are mixed, then one can readily understand why the C.D. Howe’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC), on which I sit, has been divided of late. Some see the near future — the MPC provides a one year ahead interest rate track — as requiring a further tightening of monetary policy while others, myself included, see the future in bleaker terms. It is not just the continuing stalemate in Europe, the potential implications of the US elections or the possible slowdown in China that is prompting me to have a negative view of upcoming policy rates in Canada.

James Coyne – The Governor Who Changed the Face of the Bank of Canada

October 14, 2012
James Coyne was Governor of the Bank of Canada from 1955 until 1961 and passed away a few days ago at the age of 102. In spite of the fact that the "Affair" that carries his name is over 50 years old, his passing still merits an extensive piece in Canada’s major newspapers (see the Globe and Mail’s article as well as the National Post’s article about his passing). Although the title of this blog is Money Mischief, after the title of Milton Friedman’s book about the missteps and occasionally disastrous monetary policies of the past, there was always a special place in my monetary historian heart for the period when James Coyne was Governor of the Bank of Canada.

Losing Their Credibility? Part III: The other "tea leaves" of monetary policy

October 12, 2012
There are many indicators of how much slack is appropriate in monetary policy. The plot below illustrates the behaviour of property prices in Canada since the beginning of 2001. Again the impact of the financial crisis/recession is clear. Since then, housing prices have risen steadily in spite of the use of so-called "macro-prudential" instruments by the Finance department.

Losing Their Credibility? Part II: There’s more to monetary policy than inflation

October 9, 2012
Of course, there is more to assessing the stance of monetary policy than simply looking at interest rates. In a small open economy the exchange rate also matters. Yet, media reporting of the Bank’s actions tend to focus on certain elements of the press release that keep being repeated and one occasionally gets the impression that exchange rate behaviour a separate role in assessing the state of Canada’s monetary policy. The next plot shows the record of the Canada-US dollar exchange rate since late 2008 until the middle of 2012 (left hand scale). As of this writing the Canadian dollar remains above par with the U.S. dollar.

Losing Their Credibility? Part I: Are we stuck with low Inflation?

October 3, 2012
The coming weeks will likely prove turbulent in economic terms. The ECB, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, have all unveiled plans to further loosen monetary policy more or less simultaneously. Central banks in these economies are trying their best to find a way to unleash economic growth by easing credit conditions. These central banks are now resolutely focused on the short-run. What all this loosening portends for the medium to long-term is anyone’s guess. In this post, and some to come, I want to devote attention to implications for Canada.