Global EconomyGlobal Economy
Elections in Europe: the "Network" Effect
The electoral map of Europe changed on the weekend. If there is one clear message that the people of France and Greece sent to their governments, it is that, like Howard Beale in the movie Network, they are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore. The election of François Hollande, who campaigned on converting the euro zone fiscal stability pact to a growth pact, and political disarray in Greece, introduce additional uncertainty to the outlook.
We live in interesting times.
Financial Stability Board: The Arduous Road to Mission Accomplished
Since the international financial crisis of 2008, the G20 has devoted extensive attention to the improvement of international financial regulatory standards. Having agreed on a wide range of new standards, the G20 is now facing growing questions about whether these will actually be implemented at the national level in a consistent manner. In addition to recommitting themselves to adopt these standards, the G20 leaders should use the 2012 Mexican summit to strengthen the capacity of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to address this issue.
Fundamentals Lost: Failures of Policies and Governance to Promote Economic Growth
As we approach the Los Cabos summit, it is easy to be downbeat about the state of the global economy. The G20 goals of a full recovery from the Great Recession and putting the global economy on a sustainable growth path, as outlined in the Cannes Action Plan for Growth and Jobs, are not only far from realization, but they have also suffered serious setbacks due to failures of policy and governance.
Los Cabos and Climate Change: The Art of the Possible
Advocates all want to get their pet topic discussed at the G20. Economic and financial crisis issues will dominate. Employment and commodity price volatility are next in line. Development, corruption, tax havens and anti-money laundering, drug trafficking and transnational crime, protecting the marine environment and resuscitating trade negotiations will all compete for attention. Climate change will receive very little agenda time.
The Evolving Role of the G20
In considering the evolving role of the G20, it is worth reflecting upon the factors that shaped the group’s original mandate. As the first decade of the new century progressed, it became increasingly clear that the international balance of power had shifted, but the institutional framework, which sought to manage the global economy, had not adapted to reflect this new reality. The financial crisis of 2008 forced the leading economic powers (notably the US, where the crisis originated) to confront the need to integrate the emerging economies more effectively into international economic decision making.
Should Argentina stay in the G20?
In an op-ed to The Miami Herald, Jorge Heine, CIGI Distinguished Fellow and Chair of Global Governance, looks at Argentina and the G20, and argues that "instead of focusing, as it should, on the deep crisis of the Eurozone and on kick-starting higher growth in the world economy, the G20 is now distracted..."
Risk, Uncertainty and the Problem of Adjustment
Efforts to form a new government in Athens failed over the weekend, raising the prospects of new elections and Greece’s possible exit from the eurozone. Financial markets have responded predictably: equity prices are down while bond yields are at new euro-era highs in Spain, but down in Germany. Meanwhile, ominous warnings issue forth from Brussels about a possible amicable divorce between Greece and its euro zone partners.
The Rise of the BRICS
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision not to attend the G8 summit later this week can be read as a sign of Mr. Putin’s displeasure with those who question the legitimacy of his return to the Russian presidency, writes Senior Fellow Gregory Chin.
Kick Argentina out of the G20? Absurd
Expelling Argentina from the G20 "would be the beginning of the end" for the international leaders forum, writes CIGI Chair of Global Governance Jorge Heine.
Grants of up to $250,000 available for researchers through CIGI-INET’s Spring 2012 Program
The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) are accepting research proposals for their joint Spring 2012 Grant Program, with grants ranging in value from $25,000 to $250,000.
Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow About Europe
A consequence of the financial crisis is the rising prominence of the field of behavioral economics. One of the most distinguished proponents of the view that the rational agent so commonplace in economic models does not exist is Daniel Kahneman, 2002 Nobel Laureate in economics. In the remarkable book Thinking, Fast and Slow Kahneman argues that while some decisions rely on intuition, others are deliberate and require reasoning and deduction.
A tale of two very different summits
"The outcomes could not have been more different — one a resounding success, the other a remarkable fiasco," writes CIGI Distinguished Fellow Jorge Heine in comparing the recent BRICS summit and the Summit of the Americas.
Prospects for Global Re-Balancing and the Future of Economic Cooperation
CIGI and the Brookings Institution co-hosted a lunchtime seminar on the G20 Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) at the Canadian embassy in Washington, D.C. on the margins of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings. To encourage the frank exchange of views, the seminar was held under the Chatham House Rule by which participants are not identified.
Jobs and Inclusive Growth: the IMF finally catches up to reality
Last year, the IMF created a working group to examine one of the most pressing issues facing the global economy and development today: jobs and inclusive growth. The problem exists in both the developed world and the developing world. Indeed, the Arab Spring and protests throughout southern europe have brought this issue to greater light. The working group reported its preliminary findings today at the IMF World Bank Spring Meetings, seeking the feedback of civil society actors and think tank fellows like yours truly.
The Woman Who Could Have Led the World Bank
I had the pleasure of hearing Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala speak yesterday at the Brookings Institution. She is a known figure in economics as the Nigerian minister of finance, but is even more known today for having challenged the US-European convention of having an American at the helm of the World Bank.
BRICs slowdown casts pall on global economy
“It’s a bad sign for the global economy,” says CIGI economist Badye Essid, commenting on cooling growth figures from the BRICS countries.
Should We Fear Inflation?
I had the privilege of attending the recent Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) conference in Berlin which was also co-sponsored by CIGI. There was considerable discussion about the continuing crisis in the euro zone, and the suitability of dealing with mounting debt problems through fiscal austerity.
Capital controls: a panacea to global imbalances?
At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, D.C., there continues to be great talk about the merits of capital controls. Particularly because we live in a time where developed countries continue to have low interest rates and developing countries have high interest rates that effectively cause a rapid and large influx of capital moving into developing and emerging market economies.
CIGI experts available for comment on IMF and World Bank Group spring meetings
Looking for expert commentary on the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group? The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) will have experts available for media interviews.
Is Constrained Discretion the Future of Global Financial Regulation?
The previous post, The Governance of Global Capital,makes the point that efforts to strengthen the Financial Stability Board (FSB) are needed to get the governance of global capital "right." The over-arching goal is to prevent another financial crisis that could undermine the international consensus on open, dynamic and liberal trade and payments.