Monetary Policy

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The European crisis in the context of historical trilemmas

Saturday, 19 October 2013
article
Harold James, Michael Bordo
The Eurozone’s tangle of conflicting goals – a series of ‘trilemmas’ – is not without precedent. This column argues that it is reminiscent of the interwar situation. The interwar slump was so intractable not just due to financial issues, but also a crisis of democracy, of social stability, and of the international political system. The big difference in the EZ is that nations cannot go off the euro as they went off the gold standard. That is why the initial EZ crisis may not have been so acute as some of the gold standard sudden stops, but the recovery or bounce back is painfully slow and protracted.

Lesson of the day

Friday, 18 October 2013
blog
Don't play the game of chicken on a bridge; especially when you are facing down a freight train fully loaded with iron ore. That is the conclusion to be drawn from the Congressional "time out" called in the game of brinkmanship over the U.S. debt ceiling.

Sovereign bankruptcy in the new age of uncertainty

Thursday, 17 October 2013
blog
The previous post, here, highlights the uncertainty induced by ongoing litigation over the restructuring of Argentine debt that occurred a decade ago. A ruling by the Second Circuit Court of New York could, in effect, recast the rules of the game by which successful sovereign debt restructurings have been conducted since the Argentine default.

On the Brink: Gaming Out the Debt Ceiling

Tuesday, 15 October 2013
blog
As the game of brinkmanship over the U.S. debt ceiling enters the final period, there is optimism that a short-term fix is possible. Although financial markets have remained remarkably composed, as the game clock runs down further without a resolution, look for greater volatility.

IMF, World Bank Annual Meeting

Friday, 11 October 2013
article
Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Brett House discusses how the U.S. debt default affects Canada and the world.

Off Balance: The Travails of Institutions That Govern the Global Financial System

Friday, 11 October 2013
publication
Award-winning journalist and author Paul Blustein has received wide acclaim for his books about the inner workings of international economic institutions, notably the International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization. In Off Balance, he weaves a compelling narrative that details the failings of such institutions in the global financial crisis that erupted in 2008.

Changes made during euro crisis will weaken IMF’s effectiveness in future severe debt crises, CIGI paper says

Thursday, 10 October 2013
article
Changes made in the context of the euro crisis to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) framework for lending in severe sovereign debt crises will weaken the organization’s effectiveness in future crises, says a new CIGI paper.

Is Sino-African Trade Unsustainable?

Thursday, 10 October 2013
article
President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, speaking last month at the tri-annual China-Africa Forum in Beijing, praised China’s “steadfast” commitment to Africa, already amply demonstrated, he said, by “concrete and tangible results” in the important arenas of development, debt relief, and investment. But Zuma also warned that in the long run the “unbalanced” nature of Africa’s trade ties to China were “unsustainable.”

By Going Soft on Greece, IMF Complicated Future Debt Crises – Report

Thursday, 10 October 2013
article
Michael J. Casey
The IMF framework established in the wake of the emerging market crisis of the 1990s “broke down in its first serious test” once it entered into negotiations over Greece’s crisis with the European Union and the European Central Bank, wrote Susan Schadler, a senior fellow at the Waterloo, Ontario-based Center for International Governance Innovation.

International institutions ‘lamentably deficient’ in governing global economy and financial system, new CIGI book says

Wednesday, 9 October 2013
article
Serious shortcomings and failings are evident in the institutions tasked with addressing the challenges of the post-crisis global economy, says CIGI’s new behind-the-scenes book on how these institutions work.