KANDAHAR AIRFIELD, Afghanistan — As Canada prepares for a key role in a major offensive in Kandahar province, serious questions remain about NATO’s ability to carry out its new population-focused strategy for the war.
"The real test, of course, is going to be Kandahar," said Mark Sedra, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ont. "That’s going to be, obviously, the big litmus test, I think, for the success of the future of the mission."
Sedra, who has travelled to Afghanistan about a dozen times since 2002, says he believes the Taliban will put up a fiercer fight in Kandahar — their traditional power seat — than they did during NATO’s recent operation in adjacent Helmand province.
Meanwhile, NATO’s new counter-insurgency approach — seeking input from villagers and local leaders then providing services and governance as soon as possible — has begun, intended to boost Afghan support for the mission.
"It’s moving in the right direction," Sedra said. "In the past, it was primarily about going into an area, smashing what Taliban you could, often leaving some civilian casualties in your wake, and then moving to the next place and hoping the Afghan National Police could hold the area. And of course, that was wishful thinking."
On the ground in Kandahar, Canadian Forces officials say they confident the focus on putting the Afghan government and security forces at the forefront of fighting and population protection will bring important security, development and governance gains by the time Canada’s military pulls next year.
"There’s a lot of Canadian blood spilled on the Kandahar sand, and we want to leave here in 2011 with our heads held high, knowing we made a difference," Canadian Col. Simon Hetherington said. "None of us are naive (enough) to think that it will be fixed completely in 2011, but with the activities in the upcoming year, I think there will be significant progress."
Canadian troops are already laying groundwork for the Kandahar operation — expected to begin in late spring or early summer — by gathering information at the village and district levels that will be used in planning the offensive, and by helping to strengthen Afghan government presence, Hetherington said. The more progress that can be made in putting Afghan officials and security forces forward to build local Afghan support and opposition to the insurgents, the less need there will be to fight the Taliban, he said.
Canada’s mentoring program for the Afghan army has leaped forward since the fall, with a second Afghan army infantry battalion reaching independent-operating capability in Kandahar, said Canadian Col. Shane Brennan, commander of the mentoring program.
The tactic of putting Afghan security forces front and centre during operations, as is planned for the Kandahar offensive, has a public-relations goal, Sedra said.
"Part of it is to really give the impression to domestic populations (and) to Canada and the U.S. and Europe, that Afghans can do this," Sedra said. It will be at least five years before the Afghan army and police can handle security without international military help, Sedra said.
Before the Helmand operation, intelligence suggested there were large numbers of Taliban near the town, but the U.S. forces that made up the bulk of the assault force ran into little resistance other than sniper teams and hundreds of booby-trap bombs.
"Where have the fighters gone? Have they come to Kandahar? That’s something that we are definitely tracking," Hetherington said. "We have no indications that there have been any huge waves of Taliban fleeing the operations in Helmand into Kandahar. We’ve got fighters returning to Kandahar to recommence the fighting season. If they’ve come from Helmand, or if they’ve come from elsewhere, we’re not sure."’
In Kandahar, spring has arrived, bringing its annual gift to the Taliban: foliage. "The trees green up and that gives camouflage or hides the movement of the insurgents," Hetherington said.
NATO’s new strategy in Kandahar and Helmand, centred on clearing out insurgents, holding territory and building governance and infrastructure, is based on Canada’s approach — but it’s a method that previously had little chance of success because the Canadians were stretched far too thin, said Elliot Tepper, senior research fellow at Carleton University’s Centre for Security and Defence Studies. The U.S. troop surge and influx of NATO soldiers into Kandahar province offers some hope for progress, Tepper said.
"With the extra human resources that NATO is now providing very belatedly, there is a chance that building relationships with the local population, providing security, providing essential services, providing assistance for day-to-day living, which has been the Canadian strategy all along, is now taking hold, as near as we can tell," Tepper said. "It’s finally enough, but is it in time?"
Complicating matters is Pakistan, which has long provided refuge for Taliban leaders and fighters and fears the influence in Afghanistan of India — which is helping train the Afghan army — as much as it wishes to wield its own.
"They want a stable border, a friendly regime, because they don’t want to worry about having a two-front war against India," Sedra said.
Pakistan’s recent arrest of senior Taliban figures, who were reportedly prepared to talk peace, appears to be a warning that Pakistan must be involved in any settlement with insurgents, Sedra said.
As long as Pakistan harbours an active Taliban, there is little hope of security in Afghanistan, Sedra said.
"No insurgency in history has been defeated when it has a sanctuary to return to," Sedra said.
Options for a non-military solution to the Taliban problem include incentive programs such as job training for fighters, which enjoy international support; direct negotiations, which are opposed at high levels in the United States; and power sharing in the Afghan government, which generates strong concerns in the international community over the potential for serious human-rights violations.