Researchers of three think-tanks from Canada, China and USA attended a meeting about “Leadership and Global Governance Agenda” which is related to G20 summit in Toronto University. Delegates from Canada pointed that one of the main issues of this G20 summit is Global imbalance, inevitably it will focus on China.
While delegate from China feels that Beijing is well prepared for this, and US official said RMB exchange rate should be decided by Chinese government during his recent visit to China, So China will not feel much pressure during this summit.
Delegate from USA said that G20 summit will limit only to economic issue, this make developed countries in G8 can not debate with emerging economies as China, India and Brazil .
Ming Pao interviewed Dr. Alan S. Alexandrof, a senior fellow at The Centre for International Governance Innovation and the research director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation (PCMN) at the University of Toronto, He estimated that this year’s G20 summit will focuses on Global imbalance issue, Countries like China, India and Germany has fiscal surplus ,while some counties such as Greece, Spain, and Portugal face severe fiscal deficit. This meeting will touch on currency value, exchange rate, trade, and international arrangement, which will narrow the different views gap.
He said although the RMB appreciation pressure from USA decreases, this summit will still touch on the issue of when RMB will not peg to US dollar and RMB appreciation. Due to such issues will be discussed under the background of global imbalances, it will not specific to China.
Alexandroff pointed that G20 used to focus on financial economy, since Greece and other European countries are in debt crisis recently which will influence global economy recovery, and induce further global imbalances, so the above topic is pressing.
While he feels that it may need to wait till this year’s Seoul G20 summit for member countries to find exit strategies of debt crisis.
He said, G20 has urged IMF to take actions, IMF’s report asked developed countries to implement policies to reduce fiscal deficit, since such action will induce decrease of consumer demand, developing countries and exporting countries should find ways to face the decreasing foreign demand, which will help to global balances.
While economy powers such as China and US may be reluctant to accept advice from other countries. Alexandroff said UK and USA will cut budget deficit in the next few years, China and other exporting countries should focus on domestic market. While wage rate in China increases, domestic consumption increases but saving decreases, these will have impacts on China’s economy.
He said that although financial crisis has lasted for more than 1 and half years, another hot issue of this summit is still “Bank Reform”. Since it is reported recently that this summit will not discuss global bank tax issue, Canada will focus on bank responsibility, avoiding high risk operations and increasing transparency.
Financial ministers of countries in G20 said that an international approved bank rules will be proposed at the end of this year and be taken into practice before the end of 2012. G20 members have asked global big banks to set supervision rules at the end of this year, which will prevent new bankruptcy in the future.
Alexandroff said Canadian government will praise supervision of domestic banks as global model, Since these supervision rules will reduce high risk operation and reach transparency.
Canada opposed global bank tax, while USA and most European countries support it, they think the taxation can be used as fund which will be used when the next bankruptcy crisis comes and so tax payers will not supper.
As for international trade, Alexandroff predicted that leaders who attend this summit will only reiterate opposition to protectionism and in support of free trade policy, but no new proposals.
He said climate change will not be the main topics of this summit, Canada does not like to include this issue. But the economic aspect of Climate change may be discussed, including financial transfer, technology transfer of clean energy. While French president proposed tax on financial exchange actions and transfer such taxations to developing countries to deal with climate change issue, such proposal will not be discussed in this summit.
Alexandroff said, in G8 summit, Canada government proposed Maternal Health plan which accompany UN 200 development plan, the plan aims to help reduce deaths of Third World women and children in pregnancy or soon after birth. Canada is expected to contribute $1 billion in an effort to get G8 partners and others to pony up. While Harper government emphasis that such fund will not be used to abortion.
In addition, G8 summit has discussed new $1 billion Africa aid pledge, and members of G8 agreed to provide technology and economic support to Africa.
He said climate change will not be the main topic of this summit, Leaders of G8 have planned to assign experts do study energy shortage in Africa and Asia.
G8 will discuss tensions in Korea peninsula.
He said Leaders of G8 will further discuss the issue of tensions in Korea peninsula, mainly concerning South Korean patrol boat ‘s sinking exploded by North Korea on 26th, March this year, South Korean government urged UN Security Council to make sanctions on North Korea. The summit will discuss Iran’s suspected making nuclear weapons and possible sanctions on Iran.