Nuclear Energy Futures: Implications and Options for Global Governance
Aim of the Project
The aim of the project was to investigate the implications of the purported nuclear energy revival for nuclear safety, security and nonproliferation to 2030 and to make recommendations for consideration by the international community, especially in the realm of global governance. The project ran from September 2006 to April 2010.
Background
The possibility of runaway global warming, the ravenous energy demands of China, India and other emerging economic powerhouses and the problems facing traditional and alternative energy sources, are convincing many observers that the coming decades will witness a nuclear energy renaissance.
Several countries have already embarked on new nuclear energy programs, while others are studying the possibility or floating ideas, such as uranium enrichment, that seek to profit from such a renaissance. Questions remain, however, as to whether nuclear power is able to shake off public concerns about safety, security, waste management and its consanguinity with nuclear weapons to permit a significant revival. Much will depend on the attractiveness and price of the energy alternatives and the reaction to global warming, but also on the nuclear industry demonstrating that it has answers to the critical safety, security and waste management questions.
If a truly global nuclear revival occurs, involving soaring uranium exports, scores of additional nuclear facilities, increased amounts and movement of fissionable nuclear materials, and a large increase in the number of states, corporations and other stakeholders involved in the industry, there will have to be a significant response centering not just on national obligations and action but on enhanced global governance.
For those concerned about nuclear weapons proliferation, a key consideration will be international treaties, agreements, regulatory regimes, organizations, monitoring and verification mechanisms and supplementary arrangements at the regional, sub-regional and bilateral levels.
Project Objectives:
1. Calculate the likelihood of a significant nuclear revival occurring in the coming decades
2. Determine what kind of revival this is likely to be, probably to be expressed in terms of various alternative likely scenarios
3. Assess the implications of the various scenarios for nuclear safety, security and nonproliferation and for the existing global governance arrangements, and
4. Make recommendations as to how global governance should be shaped to cope with the nuclear future; recommendations will be directed both at the international community in general and to Canada.
Critical Questions Addressed:
Is a global nuclear energy revival underway?
How are the current regimes for handling nuclear energy in a safe, secure and nonproliferant fashion evolving and what are their continuing strengths and weaknesses?
What are the implications of various nuclear energy scenarios for such regimes?
Main Project Outcome
A comprehensive report that was written, compiled and edited by the Project Director and staff, drawing on research input from a wide variety of sources. The report was published on 4 February 2010, both electronically and in hard copy and promoted worldwide among the relevant stakeholders, including governments, international organizations, the nuclear industry and civil society. The six documents that together comprise the final report of the project include:
- Action Plan / Plan d’action
- Overview
- The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030
- Nuclear Safety
- Nuclear Security
- Nuclear Nonproliferation
The full report is available here.
The Nuclear Energy Futures paper series is available here.
Governance and Management
The Chair of the project was former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Louise Fréchette.
The director of the project was Dr Trevor Findlay, Professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs (NPSIA) at Carleton University, Ottawa and director of the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance (CCTC).
Collaborating Organizations
