Tuesday, 20 May 2014
The felicitous first rule of forecasting is "a date or a number, but never both." The point being that if you want to preserve credibility it is best not be proven wrong; the rule pretty much assures that. Ok, so you ask, "what has this got to do with the NAU (New Age of Uncertainty)?
Friday, 9 May 2014
This week, host Andrew Thompson welcomes CIGI Distinguished Fellow Malcolm D. Knight for a discussion on the governance of the international financial system. The conversation begins by exploring the differences between the banking systems of the United States and Canada before touching on changes in the governance of the global financial system since 2008 and reform of the International Monetary Fund.
Friday, 9 May 2014
CIGI Senior Fellow, Susan Schadler, has an interesting post, here, on the IMF's preferred creditor status. Briefly, this refers to the fact that the IMF enjoys a senior status among creditors in the case of sovereign debt restructuring. As Susan notes, this is a legal convention that is agreed to in practice but is not supported in treaty or international law. As a convention, it is subject to change should the implicit understanding that has supported it be eroded.
Wednesday, 7 May 2014
As evidence of rising greenhouse gas emissions accumulates (see the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, here), a new controversy has erupted. Robert Stavins, an influential advisor to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and professor at Harvard, complains that the report had been substantially redacted to make it more palatable to member governments.
Tuesday, 6 May 2014
After the financial crisis, we are returning to a world much more like the late 19th than the 20th century. This is a world where globalization continues but is less rules-based than its US hegemony. This is a world in which the poor countries are likely to continue to catch up with the rich but the richer countries are likely to grow more slowly.
Monday, 5 May 2014
An earlier post on Unbalanced Central Bankers made the point that most inflation-targeting central bankers have consistently undershot their inflation targets in the wake of the global financial crisis. As a result, rather than the symmetry that should mark deviations around target inflation, with above-target observations interspersed with below-target “misses,” the pattern has been a series of consistent under-shooting. The New York Times recently pointed out, here, that the Federal Reserve is failing to meet its own targets on inflation and unemployment.
CIGI appoints Malcolm Knight, former CEO of the Bank for International Settlements, as Distinguished Fellow
Tuesday, 29 April 2014
CIGI) is pleased to announce the appointment of Malcolm D. Knight as a CIGI Distinguished Fellow. Dr. Knight is a visiting professor of finance at the London School of Economics and Political Science, a trustee of the International Valuation Standards Council and a director of the Global Risk Institute in Financial Services. From 1999 to 2003, he was Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, where he was the Bank’s chief operating officer and a member of the Board of Directors.
Monday, 28 April 2014
The Chinese government’s active promotion of the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) raises questions related to motivation, financial reform, credibility and international financial stability. To learn more about the situation in these and other areas, CIGI Senior Fellow Hongying Wang speaks with CIGI-INET grantee Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, and research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Thursday, 24 April 2014
This year marks the 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement, which created the "twin sisters" of 19th Street — the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, aka the World Bank. Together with their parent, the United Nations, these institutions provided key international public goods: international financial stability and growth (IMF), global development (World Bank) and collective security (UN). The men and women "present at the creation" of these institutions believed they were contributing to an era of international relations.
Wednesday, 23 April 2014
This week Domenico Lombardi and Samantha St. Amand of CIGI's Global Economy Program visit the Inside the Issues studio to discuss the Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, which took place April 11-13, 2014 in Washington, DC.