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The Export-Driven Model of Economic Growth is Dead

Monday, 31 August 2015
blog
India’s central bank governor upset some people in New Delhi when he first suggested that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was wrong if he thought he could load his country out of poverty by applying China's growth model.

China’s Daring Depreciation

Tuesday, 18 August 2015
article
On August 11, the People’s Bank of China lowered the central parity rate of the renminbi by 1.9%, sending shockwaves around the globe. Many foreign commentators condemned the devaluation as a blatant attempt to boost Chinese exports – a move that would, they warned, spark a new round of currency wars. But there are good reasons to believe that this was not China’s motivation at all.

The Promise and Peril of Macroprudential Policy

Friday, 7 August 2015
article
Central bankers continue to fret about frothy asset markets – as well they should, given the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Having been burned once, they are now doubly shy. And China’s recent stock-market plunge has certainly not eased their fears.

India’s politicians are finding it hard to let go of their central bank

Friday, 31 July 2015
blog
Financial markets sent Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government a message this week: leave Raghuram Rajan alone. India’s main stock market fell after the release in New Delhi of a draft proposal that would empower the government to select the majority of members of the Reserve Bank of India’s new monetary policy committee.

Rule, Germania

Thursday, 30 July 2015
article
A persistent theme – indeed the leitmotif – of the way that German leaders discuss the eurozone is their insistence on the importance of following the rules. That refrain is followed by a chorus from the rest of the monetary union demanding to know why Germany is taking such an inflexible approach. The answer, it turns out, reflects the way Germany’s federal system of government has shaped its decision-making, as well as Germany’s historic experience with debt crises.

What Stephen Poloz’s latest rate cut tells us about Canada’s central bank chief

Friday, 24 July 2015
blog
Reputations were restored on Toronto’s Bay Street last week. Forecasters at institutions such as Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce — who were embarrassed by the Bank of Canada’s shock interest rate cut in January — correctly predicted that deteriorating economic data would prompt Stephen Poloz to reduce Canada’s benchmark rate a second time in 2015. The target rate for overnight loans between banks now is 0.5 per cent — a quarter point above what the central bank says is its effective lower bound.

Uganda: Will Mutebile Get a New Mandate At the Central Bank?

Tuesday, 21 July 2015
article
Mark Keith Muhumuza
Ezra Suruma, CIGI distinguished fellow for the Global Economy program, is mentioned in All Africa as a possible replacement for governor of the Bank of Uganda.

What to Expect From ECB Rate Decision

Thursday, 16 July 2015
article
Jonathan Ferro
Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro previews the ECB rate decision. University of California Berkeley Professor Barry Eichengreen also speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

La historia inacabada del euro

Monday, 13 July 2015
article
Juan Manuel Moreno-Luque
Paul Jenkins, taking the example of the Canadian provinces, in a book published in 1997 by the IMF, comments that markets would penalize the weakest imposing prohibitive interest or refuse to lend.

Behind the scenes at the IMF on a fateful day in the Greek crisis

Tuesday, 7 July 2015
blog
Ever since Greece received its first giant package of emergency loans in May 2010, the International Monetary Fund has come under criticism for joining a rescue effort that flopped at saving the Greek economy from disaster. Most controversially, the IMF changed one of its own rules designed to keep it from piling more loans atop countries with potentially unpayable debts.
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