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China’s exchange-rate trap

Tuesday, February 9, 2016
Project Syndicate
For months now, China’s exchange-rate policy has been roiling global financial markets. More precisely, confusion about that policy has been roiling the markets. Chinese officials have done a poor job communicating their intentions, encouraging the belief that they don’t know what they’re doing.

The death throes of oil

Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Project Syndicate
The price of oil is often regarded as a sort of thermometer to measure the health of the world economy. What is less often noted is that it can also serve as a barometer – warning of approaching geopolitical storms. Indeed, the dramatic plunge in the price of a barrel of crude – from nearly $150 in June 2008 to around $30 today – is likely to fuel continued upheaval far beyond the world’s energy and commodity markets, with particularly worrying implications for the European Union.

Strategie e alleanze per emanciparsi dal vincolo tedesco. C’entra Draghi

Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Il Foglio
In an op-ed for Italy's Il Foglio newspaper, CIGI Global Economy Program Director Domenico Lombardi explores Italy’s choices in its relations with Germany, the EU and the Eurozone.

Oil price crash may be biggest resource shock the loonie has ever absorbed

Tuesday, January 19, 2016
The Globe and Mail
Just as soaring oil prices, and soaring oil sands production, lifted the loonie to parity and for a while even a premium against the greenback, plunging oil prices and the risk of bankruptcies in the sector have already pushed the currency to a 13-year low with a growing number of foreign exchange traders believing it’s on course to retest the all-time low of 61.7 cents against the U.S. dollar set back in 2002.

Will Beijing finally see the light after years of plodding reform?

Saturday, January 9, 2016
The Globe and Mail
This week’s dramatic declines in the Chinese stock market follow similar episodes last summer – both saw huge losses in market value accompanied by a depreciation of the yuan. In each instance, the financial turmoil in China sent assets in other markets around the world tumbling. But could there be global economic upside to these events?

North Korea’s nukes: A big problem with few solutions

Thursday, January 7, 2016
The Globe and Mail
North Korea is at it again. Less than a week after its leader Kim Jong-un called for better ties with South Korea, the reclusive regime announced that it had successfully conducted its fourth nuclear test since 2006. It claims to have detonated a hydrogen bomb, which, if proven true, would add a much more powerful weapon to Pyongyang’s arsenal.

Canada’s got a future on the modern Silk Road

Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Thousands of years old and 24 years young, the five countries that make up Central Asia continue to struggle with stability and sovereignty.

Success in Paris climate talks isn't certain. 5 things to remember

Monday, December 14, 2015
The Globe and Mail
More than 150 countries have come to the Paris talks with plans to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions, an encouraging global response to this major global problem. But, as in all such major negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Success in Paris is not yet in the bag.

How the next digital revolution can revive Canada’s economy

Thursday, December 10, 2015
Fen Osler Hampson and Derek H. Burney
The Globe and Mail
While the government is trying to put a square fiscal peg into a round deficit hole with its new budget, it is fast discovering that if you hew too closely to your election promises, the world around you will upset the best laid plans.

Today’s Productivity Paradox

Thursday, December 10, 2015
Project Syndicate
Recent trends in productivity growth make it hard to be optimistic about the future. In 2014, the global growth of total factor productivity, or TFP, which measures the combined productivity of capital and labor, was essentially zero for the third consecutive year. This was down from 1% in 1996-2006 and 0.5% in the crisis years of 2007-2012. And, by every indication, 2015 has been no less dismal.

Development Zones for Syrian Refugees

Monday, December 7, 2015
Markus Brunnermeier, Hannes Malmberg, and Harold James
Project Syndicate
The Syrian refugee crisis confronts the European Union with an acute dilemma. Europe has a historic responsibility to help victims of war and violence, and responsible politicians recognize that it is inhumane to bar entrance to people fleeing for their lives. For moral and practical reasons, the EU cannot build a modern version of the Iron Curtain around its perimeter.

Is the renminbi’s future as a global or regional currency?

Wednesday, December 2, 2015
China’s currency will form part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket. This column discusses whether the renminbi will assume an international role, or mostly a regional-currency role in Asia.
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