Speculation prior to the termination of the multi-fibre arrangement (MFA) at the end of 2004 had been that large increases of Chinese exports would ensue, and at the expense of other Asian suppliers. Using data from the US, EU, Chinese and other sources, the picture that emerges is only small impacts on aggregate US and EU imports of clothing and textiles, and equally only small impacts on aggregate Chinese exports of clothing and textiles.

There are, however, large changes in the country pattern of trade, and also within more narrowly defined product categories. There are large increases in shipments from China...

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