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For as long as he’s been governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz has been promising that exports would replace commodities and housing the driver of economic growth. The “rotation,” took longer than he expected it would, but finally, two months ago, Poloz declared victory. “The export recovery is alive and well,” he said.

Or not.

Contrast Poloz’s July remarks with this observation from the Bank of Canada’s latest policy statement, released Sept. 7: “Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production.” As a result,...

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  • Kevin Carmichael is a senior fellow at CIGI and the national business columnist at the Financial Post.