The shape and direction of the Great Recession can be traced by examing the growth predictions for major economies including the advanced and large emerging market countries. From dire predictions in the spring we've seen a better than predicted set of growth numbers as the summer and fall have come on. More intriguing has been the ongoing improvement - by this I mean generally positive numbers for atleast the 'Big Two' - India and China - when examing the G5 - Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa.
|Projected Change in GDP|
* World Bank May 2009
* IMF July 2009
In addition the other G20 country predicted to have growth is Indonesia. The predictions are Indonesia is likely to have 3.5 percent projected change in growth, A number of the other G20 have a significantly imporvedgrowth picture. Probably most notably is South Korea. The Bank of Korea has identified that the country has had the fastest growth pace in more than five years for the second quarter from the previous quarter. The GDPO for the 3 months ended JUne 30, 2009 the Bank identifies that the economy grew a revised 2.6 percent. The Bank now predicts that there will be a 1.6 contraction in growth but that is a significant improvement over the IMFs July prediction that South Korea would contract 3 percent.
So, itr would appear that a number of the G5 and the G20 are scheduled to have growth or significantly reduced contractions in growth. Is this a sign of global rebound? Does the 'turning of the corner' for a number of the players mean that coordination of national policy, or international regulation, at the global governance level becomes less likely and less pressing to a number of the significant countries?