The growth turn around in the emerging markets becomes clearer as we secure data from these countries.  Take a look at the economic growth for just two large emerging markets - China and Brazil - in the second quarter anualized for 2009. In a broader examination of emerging markets, Jonathan Anderson, the global emerging markets economist at UBS writing in the September issue of, Far Eastern Economic Review (see the article at feer.com) suggests that growth in these economies is not characterized by the old debate over, 'decoupling' but, "...it is very much a decoupling in the broader sense, as emerging markets can once again grow faster for any given rate of global growth." What accounts for this acceleration of growth in the emerging markets?  Anderson goes through several explanations but then settles on - 'the role of the balance sheet.'  What Anderson means by this is that these large emerging markets have only moderate leverage growth at home (credit as a share of GDP) and continued favorable fiscal (external and public debt as a share of GDP) and external balances (external current account balance).  The question is, is he right especially with respect credit leverage especially in China?

China

 

   14.9%
Brazil
7.8%
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