Waterloo, Canada — May 31 — How did one of the world's largest financial institutions fail to predict the global economic crisis?

Tonight at 7 p.m., Ruben Lamdany will address this question when he presents his keynote address as part of The Centre for International Governance Innovation's (CIGI) Signature Lecture, "Groupthink and Overconfidence: Predictive Failures in the Global Economic Crisis."

Mr. Lamdany, Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Independent Evaluation Office, will present findings from a recent inquiry into the IMF's performance in the run-up to the financial and economic crisis, mainly during 2004–07. It found that the IMF's banner message in that period was "characterized by overconfidence in the soundness and resiliency of large financial institutions and endorsement of the financial practices in the main financial centres." Mr. Lamdany's presentation will focus on why the IMF failed to identify and warn about the risks and vulnerabilities associated with the impending crisis, and on recommendations to strengthen its capacity in this area going forward.

Following Mr. Lamdany's address, he will be joined by Louis W. Pauly, Director of the Centre for International Studies in the Munk School of Global Affairs, and CIGI Distinguished Fellow Paul Jenkins for a discussion on warnings before financial crises, how risks and vulnerabilities can be detected or ignored.

Members of the media are encouraged to attend by registering with [email protected] To register for a live webcast of this event, please visit: http://groupthinkandoverconfidence.eventbrite.com/


CIGI Distinguished Fellow Paul Jenkins provides strategic advice to the Global Economy program, including activities related to CIGI's partnership with the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) and broader macroeconomic issues. From 2003 to 2010, he served as senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada.

Ruben Lamandy is Deputy Director at Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF. Past positions include: Director of the Sector and Thematic Department of the World Bank Institute at The World Bank and Lead Economist at The World Bank.

Louis W. Pauly holds the Canada Research Chair in Globalization and Governance at the University of Toronto, where he also directs the Centre for International Studies in the Munk School of Global Affairs.

Event: CIGI Signature Lecture – "Groupthink and Overconfidence: Predictive Failures in the Global Economic Crisis."

Date:  7-9 p.m., Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Location: The Centre for International Governance Innovation,

57 Erb St. West, Waterloo, ON, Canada

Declan Kelly, Communications Specialist, CIGI
Tel: 519.885.2444, ext. 356, Email: [email protected]

The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) is an independent, nonpartisan think tank on international governance. Led by experienced practitioners and distinguished academics, CIGI supports research, forms networks, advances policy debate and generates ideas for multilateral governance improvements. Conducting an active agenda of research, events and publications, CIGI's interdisciplinary work includes collaboration with policy, business and academic communities around the world. CIGI was founded in 2001 by Jim Balsillie, co-CEO of RIM (Research In Motion), and collaborates with and gratefully acknowledges support from a number of strategic partners, in particular the Government of Canada and the Government of Ontario. For more information, please visit www.cigionline.org.

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