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Over the longer term, other analysts said, an American withdrawal from Nafta “would call into question the viability of Mexico as an outsourcing destination,” said Dan Ciuriak, a trade expert at the Center for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ontario.
Under Nafta, a complex network has evolved in which raw materials and parts move easily across borders, often several times, to be assembled into larger pieces and finally into a finished product.
Without Nafta, even small duties would add up in such a manufacturing system. “The deeply integrated sectors would face tremendous disruption,” Mr. Ciuriak said.