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In eight International Monetary Fund programs since independence in 1991, Ukraine has completed just one successfully. A year on from Russia's seizure of Crimea, it looks unlikely it will live up to the terms of its latest deal with the IMF also.

Ukraine's finance minister believes the IMF's money is "not forever", but over-optimistic economic assumptions and continued fighting in the east of the country will probably mean Ukraine will end up depending on foreign support given on its geopolitical significance, experts and former IMF officials said.

The IMF, whose shareholding structure is dominated by the United States and Europe,...

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