Time and Expectations in Economic Analysis

Speakers: Sheila Dow Roman Frydman Roger Guesnerie George Soros

Series: Changing of the Guard? Hong Kong 2013

April 8, 2013

Time and Expectations in Economic Analysis

The formation of expectations and the subtle implicit assumptions regarding knowledge held by consumers, businesses, investors, and policy makers is a foundation stone that must be thoroughly explored so that models of economic dynamics represent the phenomena under investigation in an illuminating manner. The obvious presence of non-routine change, or what Frank Knight called radical uncertainty, challenges the very notion that dynamic economic systems can be modeled as closed systems. How do these models perform? If dynamic economics is better envisioned as an open system, what can researchers do to understand and analyze the decision making process? What are the implications for economic policy and governance of open system dynamics?

Series: Changing of the Guard? Hong Kong 2013

The event was called “The Changing of the Guard?” because it focused on the most pressing global questions of our time, such as economic inequality and financial instability, all set against the backdrop of Asia’s rising importance in the world. CIGI is a co-sponsor of this event.

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