Ukraine’s Fate Hinges on Its English-Language Influence Operations

“For nearly three years, Ukraine has combined the principles of persuasion to build a compelling narrative, while using the full range of digital information technologies and legacy media outlets to galvanize support for itself among dozens of subsegmented audiences throughout the West....There are more factors influencing attitudes and perceptions about Ukraine than its campaigns alone. However, there’s ample reason to believe they have contributed to Ukraine outperforming expectations in the war.”

In this opinion, Kyle Hiebert and Jordan Miller write that although how the conflict ends is yet to be determined, “long after it does, the war will continue to provide many lessons on the application of digital technologies — both for combat operations and for shaping global opinion.”

The findings of the 16-month public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections and democratic processes, released on January 28, threaten to be swallowed up by the urgencies surrounding a suddenly fraught Canada-US relationship.

In this policy brief, Wesley Wark argues that one way to make sure this doesn’t happen “is to be clear about the ways in which the inquiry weaves two major threads between past foreign interference activities and future threats, with implications for dealing with an antagonistic, America-First administration headed by Donald Trump.”

We’ve seen this movie before, says Daniel Araya: “Current geopolitical tensions bear a striking resemblance to events preceding the First World War, as competition between Britain and Germany fomented decades of global destruction. Much as then, geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China — and, to a lesser degree, Russia — have provoked global uncertainty and an acute fear of great-power war.”

The dangers of military confrontation in this period of history are obvious; what the world needs most, rather than a new Cold War, Araya writes, is new US-China rapprochement: both nations have a shared interest in maintaining the peace and prosperity of the Bretton Woods era.

In this new episode of Policy Prompt, hosts Vass Bednar and Paul Samson welcome Robert de Neufville, a super forecaster with degrees in government and political science from Harvard and Berkeley and extensive experience in analyzing existential risk.

In their conversation, they try to decipher the alchemy of knowledge and judgment that makes super forecasters’ predictions so much more accurate than those of intelligence analysts and other experts, and discuss the crucial role forecasting could play in shaping policy decisions.

Going to RightsCon 2025 in Taipei this week? If so, don’t miss “Figures for Social Change: How to Use Quantitative Survey Data in Intersectional Advocacy on TFGBV.” This interactive in-person workshop on February 26 aims to provide practical experience to help people use and integrate quantitative data into their advocacy to combat technology-facilitated gender-based violence (TFGBV).

Quantitative data on various aspects of TFGBV is rarely available, leaving significant gaps and even misconceptions in our understanding of this scourge, complicating our efforts to combat it. In this explainer piece, Anja Kovacs and Ifeoluwa Olorunnipa write how the Supporting Safer Digital Spaces research project, led by CIGI and with funding from Canada’s International Development Research Centre and data collected by Ipsos, seeks to fill these data gaps, and what participants can look forward to in the upcoming workshop.

“In the face of the US tariff threat, Canadian politicians are now united in calling for a more independent national economy — one that is less vulnerable to external threats. To which economist can they turn for intellectual inspiration? It turns out that the most prestigious award in Canadian economics, the John Rae Prize, is named after just such a thinker.”

It is time to dust off old copies of Rae’s 1834 book, Eric Helleiner says: “a future John Rae Prize awaits the Canadian economist who rises to the challenge of updating Rae’s analysis to serve the country’s contemporary predicament.”

Mar. 4 – 6:30 p.m. EST (UTC–05:00) – Waterloo, Canada: The Balsillie School of International Affairs (BSIA) and CIGI are pleased to partner to bring Werner Herzog’s documentary Theater of Thought to the CIGI Auditorium next week. In his film, Herzog explores the human brain and “illuminates the technological advances that are helping people overcome brain-related illnesses, confronting conspiracy theories over implanted chips, and questioning the politics of mind control.”

The screening will be followed by a panel discussion with experts who will discuss the implications of emerging neurotechnologies.

This event is in-person only and will not be recorded: reserve your ticket now!

Mar. 6 – 10:00 a.m. EST (UTC–05:00): The Africa Forum at the BSIA, in collaboration with CIGI, is hosting a dynamic conversation on higher education reform in Africa, bringing together experts in higher education policy, post-colonial studies, African development and distance-learning innovation.

The one-hour virtual panel discussion is free and open to the public.

Learn more about the event and the panellists, and register here.