When the Facts Change: The Future of the Global Monetary System

CIGI Paper No. 321

June 9, 2025

This paper considers possible futures for the international monetary system in light of recent economic and political events in the United States and globally. It contrasts scenarios pre- and post-inauguration of the second Trump administration. Earlier scenarios foresaw very gradual rebalancing of the international monetary system away from post-Bretton Woods dollar-centric international financial architecture. Recent developments have pointed toward the possibility of a more abrupt shift away from a system centred on the dollar and the US correspondent banking system. The paper considers economic, financial, geopolitical and technological considerations bearing on possible futures.

About the Author

Barry Eichengreen is a former CIGI senior fellow. He is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987.