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When it comes to the impact on emerging markets, the Brexit Surprise (the surprise outcome of the UK’s EU-membership referendum) is in some ways analogous to the Taper Tantrum of May 2013 that occured when then-Fed Chair Bernanke’s suggested that the US central bank was contemplating reducing its rate of security purchases (see Neely 2014). In this note we take a first look at whether Brexit had analogous effects.

The answer in one sense is yes – a substantial number of emerging markets saw declines in their stock markets and dollar exchange rates in the first two post-Surprise days of trading,...

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