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The early returns on Brexit are in, and contrary to what some have been claiming, they’re not good. In July, following the referendum, consumer confidence collapsed at its most rapid rate since 1990. Surveys of manufacturing and construction dropped precipitously. While August’s data were better, it is too soon to say whether the improvement was just a “dead cat bounce.”

In this topsy-turvy post-referendum world, the one piece of good news is sterling’s fall on the foreign exchange market. A lower exchange rate will make British exports more competitive. Faced with higher import prices, consumers will shift their spending toward domestic...

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  • Barry Eichengreen

    Barry Eichengreen is a non-resident CIGI Senior Fellow. He is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Massachusetts). At CIGI, his research will focus on the internationalization of the renminbi.