S. Yash Kalash explores the evolving relationship between geopolitical transformations and technological innovation, and their combined impact on the future of global financial assets and systems. Through a scenario-based methodology, he examines three plausible geopolitical configurations — a multipolar order, a fragmented global economy and a renewed cooperative global governance framework — and assesses their implications for currency stability, investment patterns and market volatility.
The analysis then integrates technological developments — particularly in artificial intelligence, blockchain and decentralized finance — into each geopolitical scenario to evaluate how these technologies may amplify, stabilize or disrupt global financial systems. While emerging technologies offer potential for financial inclusion and efficiency, they also risk exacerbating fragmentation if regulatory divergence and infrastructure disparities persist.
Drawing on current trends and foresight tools, the paper concludes with recommendations for strategic policy responses focused on regulatory flexibility, global coordination, infrastructure investment and cybersecurity. These measures aim to help states, financial institutions and multilateral bodies navigate the increasing intersection of geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.
