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United States and Canadian experts say there's a slim chance of major dairy concessions from Ottawa. They point out domestic pressure from Canada's dairy industry is significant and complicated by elections later this year in the two large dairy provinces, Quebec and Ontario.

"They'd walk away from a deal before they would actually give up supply management at this point," said Kevin Carmichael, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, a think tank in Waterloo, Ontario. "It's just too sensitive for the Canadians."

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