The Quadripolar World

The current geopolitical environment is defined by constantly changing dynamics among countries: long-standing partnerships are disintegrating while other alliances are strengthening. To better understand a world in flux, S. Yash Kalash presents in this special report the quadripolar geopolitical framework (QGF), in which four powers — the United States, China, India and Russia — serve as autonomous strategic poles. The framework seeks to capture the fluid, multidimensional nature of twenty-first-century geopolitics, where states simultaneously compete, cooperate and hedge across domains.

Drawing on game theory, the QGF maps bilateral relationships across two axes: ideological alignment versus strategic autonomy, and systemic rivalry versus economic interdependence. Through case studies, Kalash illustrates how contemporary power dynamics defy linear alliances and demand new interpretive tools.

In this paper, Barry Eichengreen considers possible futures for the international monetary system in light of recent economic and political events in the United States and globally.

Eichengreen contrasts scenarios pre- and post-inauguration of the second Trump administration. Earlier scenarios foresaw very gradual rebalancing of the international monetary system away from post-Bretton Woods dollar-centric international financial architecture, but recent developments have pointed toward the possibility of a more abrupt shift away from a system centred on the dollar and the US correspondent banking system. The author describes economic, financial, geopolitical and technological considerations bearing on possible futures.

In this op-ed first published in the Financial Post, Danielle Goldfarb says that policy makers might naturally turn to trade data to assess the impact of how Canadian firms are recalibrating in response to the US tariff threats. The problem is, the latest numbers available are several weeks behind, and tell us little about the impact today: “These numbers are ancient history by now, especially given the many tariff-related developments since April….the data we have no longer reflects how trade actually works. We are making policy decisions based on both a partial and lagged view of trade.”

Referencing her recent CIGI special report, Goldfarb argues that policy makers “need to invest in tools that provide real-time visibility into supply chain shocks, chokepoints and rerouting options….Much of the data for trade and supply chains already exists or could be gathered, and the latest AI advances allow us to scale and organize this information in near real time.”

“The United States government’s retreat from global engagement — marked by cuts to the US Agency for International Development, the World Health Organization, universities, research, and now the State Department — poses an unprecedented threat to international security.”

In this op-ed, a version of which was published at The Hill Times, Ann Fitz-Gerald and Halyna Padalko write that after years of underinvestment, Canada’s defence posture is unprepared for today’s volatile world. “Canada’s government confronts a dual challenge: redefining its defence priorities in light of current and escalating threats to our sovereignty; and contributing more credibly to the collective security of our North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies…Canada will not lead through mass or hard power. But we can lead through strategic utility and differentiation. This starts with geography — our greatest untapped advantage.”

In May, Ukraine and the United States signed a minerals deal. The first of its kind, the agreement allows future revenues from the extraction of Ukraine’s critical minerals to be used to finance defence procurement. Through a bilateral Joint Investment Fund for Reconstruction, expected to be created this year, Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of state budget revenues from the sale of new licences and 50 percent of new mineral extraction rents and may also transfer additional funds. The US contribution is direct cash receipts or their equivalent in the cost of new military assistance.

Anna Romandash writes that the agreement looks like a step forward, especially after a disastrous meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump in the White House in March. But behind this economic breakthrough lie complex questions: Will Ukraine receive security guarantees in exchange for access to its subsoil, and what does the arrangement mean in the absence of progress on NATO membership for Ukraine?

CIGI has a contract position opening for a dynamic and visionary Manager, Creative and Digital Production to lead our multidisciplinary creative team. This role is responsible for translating CIGI’s cutting-edge research into compelling, accessible digital and visual content including reports, interactive tools, data visualizations, multimedia assets and more.

The deadline to apply is June 19. Find out more and please share with your contacts.