2013 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

50%

Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

“Not my area of expertise. If pushed, my sense would be about 50%.”

- Gordon Smith

CIGI Distinguished Fellow

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

N/A

No response was provided by Gordon Smith for this question.

Development

35%

Question: How much progress has been made in cooperation on international development in the last year?

“I do not see much tangible sign of progress. Words do not lead to much progress on the ground. Indeed we see a world that is in many ways going backwards – growing gaps between the super rich and the middle. I write this as a non-economist, but as someone concerned about political stability. We all know that globalization needs to work for more people, but I sense popular perceptions are generally contrary.”

- Gordon Smith

CIGI Distinguished Fellow

Cooperation on Trade

45%

Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?

“Much more talk but not much action. My feeling is that the array of trade negotiations under way is likely to undermine the global trade architecture.”

- Gordon Smith

CIGI Distinguished Fellow

Cooperation on Climate Change

30%

Question: How much progress, on balance, has been made on climate change in the last year?

“To the extent there is any reason to be hopeful it is because China and the US are pursuing their bilateral relationship. They can lead the world and they may, in fact, do so. Environmental issues are of increasing political importance in China. Technologies are also emerging in areas that had not been foreseen. The multilateral process is badly broken.”

- Gordon Smith

CIGI Distinguished Fellow

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.