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Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Brett House / 2014 Responses

Overall Ranking

44%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

40%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

"In June this year, the IMF published a review of its lending framework, which included the staff’s proposal to unwind the systemic waiver on exceptional access. This review was accompanied by a proposal on reprofiling future debt treatments where sustainability is uncertain. The IMF’s release of a paper on improvements to collective action clauses (CACs) and aggregation at this year’s Fall Meetings were a useful step forward and complementary to other proposals, such as the Sovereign Debt Forum, sovereign CoCos [contingent convertible bonds], and possible arbitration frameworks.

These developments are offset, however, by the lack of movement on sovereign debt issues at the G20, the continued delay by the US Congress in ratifying the IMF’s quota reforms, and the possible fragmentation of the international system occasioned by the still nascent BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA)."

- Brett House
CIGI Senior Fellow

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

60%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

"Decent progress continues under Basel III and the FSB, although with delays. The G20 remains reasonably focused on these issues and is supportive of this work. This is one of the brighter spots in global economic governance.

Greater concerns persist in implementation at the regional and national levels, where US banks failed their “living will” test, and cleaning of European bank balance sheets remains significantly delayed."

- Brett House
CIGI Senior Fellow

Cooperation on Trade

50%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?

"The Bali 9th WTO Ministerial and the resulting “Bali Package” provided a good sign that the multilateral trade negotiation system can still produce agreement on further liberalization of international trade. The WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism also still represents the gold standard for resolving disagreements on trade.

That said, creative ways must be pursued to integrate mega regional, plurilateral, and bilateral negotiations into WTO processes, which is entirely possibly under existing WTO provisions. Moreover, the Doha Round needs to be streamlined and focused on a few issues: at present it is too sprawling to anticipate that it can be completed as is. Finally, the WTO should be reformed to provide for majoritarian decision making on some issues."

- Brett House
CIGI Senior Fellow

Cooperation on Climate Change

25%
Question: How much progress, on balance, has been made on climate change in the last year?

"Climate change negotiations need to be moved out of the UN’s fully comprehensive processes and moved to a venue with fewer participants such as the G20. G20 countries account for over 80 percent of global economic output and similar proportions of greenhouse emissions. The UNFCCC process is not working: it’s time to try an alternative, more streamlined approach with the key countries at the table."

- Brett House
CIGI Senior Fellow

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.