Javascript not enabled, please enable javascript in your browser to view this interactive feature.
Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Manuela Moschella / 2014 Responses

Overall Ranking

40%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

30%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

"There have been major areas of regression over the past year. Macroeconomic coordination has been poor in dealing with the implications of the exit from accommodative monetary policies. The financial market turmoil in several emerging market countries following the Fed’s taper announcement is the obvious case in point. In this context, calls for greater central banks’ coordination have fallen on deaf ears and there are no clear signals that we will see more in the coming months.

Likewise, the momentum behind addressing global macroeconomic imbalances has lost most of its steam. This is also the case within the European Union where imbalances have been at heart of the Eurozone crisis. Indeed, in Europe, addressing imbalances is conceived not as a matter of international coordination but as an exercise of unilateral adjustment by deficit countries.

Furthermore, the failure to move on with IMF governance reform due to continued Congressional opposition further attests to the deteriorated climate of international economic cooperation. The newly created BRICs bank and contingency reserve arrangement hardly improve the picture. These outcomes reflect the resentment of emerging markets and injects elements of fragmentation in to the international financial architecture. However, at this stage, the jury is still out as to whether these new facilities will provide a healthy competition for the Bretton Woods institutions."

- Manuela Moschella
CIGI Senior Fellow

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

50%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

"Cooperation on financial regulation has performed better than macroeconomic cooperation over the past year. Although significant time has elapsed since the onset of the crisis, the ‘window of opportunity’ for reforming financial rules has not been closed as yet. This attests to widespread political willingness to continue to work on making the financial sector more resilient.

However, there have also been episodes that cast doubt on policymakers’ and regulators’ ability (and willingness) to keep the reform agenda on track. For instance, there have been rumours that regulators have begun bowing to mounting pressure from bankers for a retreat on previously set or announced rules (as happened with the Basel Committee on securitization rules and leverage ratio). This is not to suggest that more stringent rules are necessarily the most effective most of the time. However, the perception that regulators may heed bankers’ complaints does not bode well for their political legitimacy and independence, and consequently, for the effectiveness of their actions.

Furthermore, although several international and transnational bodies are involved in the reform of the global financial system, regulatory harmonization has often proved wanting over the past year. For instance, Asian regulators have complained about European rules on clearing houses and the adoption of the Volcker rule has raised several concerns outside the USA. It is thus an open question of whether (and to what extent) domestic financial regulatory measures can be made compatible with those in place in other jurisdictions."

- Manuela Moschella
CIGI Senior Fellow

Cooperation on Trade

N/A
No response was provided by Manuela Moschella for this question.

Cooperation on Climate Change

N/A
No response was provided by Manuela Moschella for this question.

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.