2014 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance
2014 Responses by Expert
Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:
Participants:
Survey Home
Quantitative Summary
Paul Jenkins
Paul Jenkins / 2014 Responses
Overall Ranking
30%
The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.
Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation
20%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?
"Countries continue to be inward looking in addressing their domestic concerns. Europe remains in a fragile state with no substantive progress either in terms of a sustained recovery or in terms of structural reforms requiring sovereigns to give up some of their authority. Lastly, emerging countries continue to go their own way with no progress on IMF reform."
- Paul Jenkins
CIGI Distinguished Fellow
International Cooperation on Financial Regulation
40%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?
"While implementation risks persist, the contours of a new global regulatory structure at both the microprudential and macroprudential levels are taking shape."
- Paul Jenkins
CIGI Distinguished Fellow
Cooperation on Trade
20%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?
"A lot of talk, but little action. This is an area where if no progress is being made then slippage comes naturally."
- Paul Jenkins
CIGI Distinguished Fellow
Cooperation on Climate Change
40%
Question: How much progress, on balance, has been made on climate change in the last year?
"This is a tough call. My sense is that there is a growing awareness of the issues—given the number of countries that have experienced some form of catastrophic climate event in the past year—and that at the national level, signs of action are taking hold. In terms of governance, it is hard to point to something specific, but the growing recognition at the domestic level strikes me as evidence of some progress."
- Paul Jenkins
CIGI Distinguished Fellow
Progress Scale
Major Progress 85-100
Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.
Major Progress 80-100
Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.
Some Progress 70-84
Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.
Some Progress 60-79
Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.
Minimal Progress 55-69
Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Status Quo 45-54
Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.
Minimal Progress 40-59
Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Minimal Regression 30-44
Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.
Some Regression 20-39
Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.
Some Regression 15-29
Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.
Major Regression 0-14
Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.
Major Regression 0-19
Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.