Javascript not enabled, please enable javascript in your browser to view this interactive feature.
Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

David Kempthorne / 2014 Responses

Overall Ranking

40%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

N/A
No response was provided by David Kempthorne for this question.

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

40%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

"It is important to not overlook areas of progress in the post-crisis regulatory reform process. Basel III has improved the quality and quantity of capital held by banks. Other improvements such as the lesser-known creation of a net-stable funding ratio have built on capital adequacy standards to strengthen the resiliency of the financial system.

Despite this, critical vulnerabilities remain. First, despite improvements at the international level there is evidence of back peddling at the domestic level. The EU was condemned by international regulators for softening financial standards for small business loans and weakening the quality of capital under the EU's Capital Requirement's Directive IV.

Elsewhere, East Asia continues to be reticent in adopting financial standards for OTC derivatives. Playing a wait and see strategy, East Asia does not appear to be committed to meaningful OTC derivative reforms and aims to carve out a competitive advantage from relatively weaker regulation in order to strengthen its position in the international financial system. This trend highlights a worrying trend.

Domestic politics is contributing to the divergence of national financial regulation, making the supervision of global financial markets more difficult and ineffective. This trend is a far cry from the vision of the G20 at the beginning of the crisis in 2008.

The absence of progress in shadow banking and cross-border resolution are of particular concern. Financial regulators and policymakers seem perplexed by how to design an effective regulatory regime for the shadow banking system due to the legal and financial complexities that this system of banking poses. Proposed interventions into tri-party repo markets by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the FSB's release of a regulatory framework for Haircuts on Non-Centrally Cleared Securities Financing Transactions are both promising developments. Reforms to mortgage underwriting standards and other areas of reform aimed at improving consumer protection and the quality of borrowers within securitized debt products will support the strengthened resilience of shadow banking markets in the U.S. and Europe. However, vulnerabilities in China’s financial system and the lack of transparency within its large shadow banking system could have far-reaching and significant consequences for the global financial system."

- David Kempthorne
Research Fellow, Global Economy

Cooperation on Trade

N/A
No response was provided by David Kempthorne for this question.

Cooperation on Climate Change

N/A
No response was provided by David Kempthorne for this question.

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.