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Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2014 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Domenico Lombardi / 2014 Responses

Overall Ranking

40%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

40%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

"There are a number of concerning issue areas in the international macroeconomic system that illustrate the lack of meaningful progress in macroeconomic policy coordination.

The absence of evolution and the lack of commitment to improving the governance of sovereign debt restructuring is a glaring gap in international economic governance. Additionally, the legal uncertainty created by the U.S. court decision on Argentina, the numerous challenges faced by Europe in handling Greece’s sovereign debt restructuring, and the rising levels of public debt in developed and developing economies have highlighted the importance of reform.

The Eurozone’s continuing struggles is also a cause for concern. As the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP, the Eurozone’s lagging recovery is impeding global economic growth. Europe’s failure to restore growth highlights a number of important vulnerabilities in the European political and economic system. Europe’s unwillingness to commit to a cooperative approach to fiscal consolidation and its inability to endorse pro-growth fiscal and structural reform policies for the beleaguered southern European economies is the core driver of Europe’s failure to jump start economic growth. The failure to pursue expansionary fiscal policies has placed an immense burden on the ECB’s monetary policy. The ECB’s monetary policy is also beleaguered by Europe’s unwillingness to pursue aggressive, cooperative, and expansionary monetary policy. Despite the new expansionary monetary policy package that was recently by the ECB, monetary policy has not done enough to address Europe’s current state of low economic growth.

Finally, the failure to pass IMF quota reform as a consequence of the U.S. Congress’ continued reticence on this issue is disappointing. The failure of the IMF to reform its quota and inability to keep up with the changing power dynamics of the international economic system will have spillover effects into other important issue areas."

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

40%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

"There have been important areas of improvement as a consequence of the post-crisis reform process. Basel III has improved the capital adequacy requirements for banks in a manner that will improve the resiliency and the robustness of the financial system.

Nevertheless, important vulnerabilities still remain. The concentration of ownership in the US and elsewhere as a consequence of the financial crisis has meant that leverage in the financial system remains high. Continued leverage within the financial system means that it is still vulnerable to the impact of large external economic shocks. At a time when the global economic recovery is fragile, managing the deleveraging of the financial system is difficult, and political commitment to reducing leverage continues to wane as time passes.

Within the post-crisis reform process, the continued absence of meaningful reform of the shadow banking system and the failure to achieve greater progress in the area of cross-border resolution of financial firms highlights that there are still glaring gaps in the reform process six years later. This brings attention to the fact that important vulnerabilities remain."

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

Cooperation on Trade

40%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?

"The path towards progress in free trade is increasingly being found within plurilateral and regional mega free trade agreements such as TTIP, TPP, and plurilateral free trade agreements that set the foundation for further developments elsewhere, such as Canada’s recently concluded trade agreement with Europe.

These free trade agreements have been useful in maintaining momentum towards free trade, but the limitations to the WTO’s Bali Agreement and the cracks that are appearing in the multilateral WTO trade process show the underlying vulnerabilities in the international trade system."

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

Cooperation on Climate Change

N/A
No response was provided by Domenico Lombardi for this question.

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.