China is in debt. Its debt is nearly 300 percent of its GDP, the fourth highest among the G20, and is still rising. Following the dislocation by the Trump administration and world leaders changing their tune on China, risks have reared their heads in China’s property sector, and with a declining working-age population (among other pressures), the country’s ambitious goal of doubling its per capita income by 2035 seems unattainable.
CIGI Senior Fellow Mark Kruger contends that China must respond to these anti-international trade pressures through the classic outsourcing model: investing in manufacturing in foreign markets, retaining up- and downstream activities at home while preserving its market access. But China’s success hinges, in no small part, on the rest of the world’s willingness to engage. And the United States does not appear to be helping those odds.
