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Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Domenico Lombardi / 2015 Responses

Overall Ranking

59%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

50%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

Cooperation among established multilateral organizations has been static, with little to no progress in macroeconomic policy governance and collaboration.

While the international multilateral institutions hold a great responsibility to ensure a crisis the magnitude of the last does not occur again, we must also invest our efforts in growth as well as stability. Beyond addressing sovereign debt restructuring with a new strong framework, efforts are lacking in the inclusion of emerging economies and the development of ways to meet concrete targets. Greece stepped dangerously close to the edge of a financial cliff recently, exposing an unresolved debt situation that has lingered for several years now.

The IMF Quota Reform process remains delayed, providing further indication of a stagnant environment in macroeconomic coordination.

The Turkish G20 presidency has expressed macroeconomic priorities of investment, employment, and trade, with a focus on small and medium enterprises. It remains to be seen what will come out of this year’s G20 summit.

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

60%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

In the last year there have been signs of minimal progress in international coordination on financial regulation. Financial regulators continue to work towards a number of critical reforms, but a number of key targets have not been met yet, including the G20 agenda to reform over-the-counter derivatives by 2012.

Shadow banking reforms remain behind schedule but work is ongoing. The Turkish G-20 presidency has prioritized finalizing the regulatory framework with the goal of full and consistent implementation during their Presidency. The FSB is particularly concerned with the slow and uneven implementation of reforms to OTC derivatives markets, including transaction and trade reporting, as well as central clearing and organized platform trading for standardized transactions.

The IMF reform package endorsed by the G20 leaders in Seoul in November 2010 remains on ice as US Congress has not ratified it yet.

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

Development

N/A
No response was provided by Domenico Lombardi for this question.

Cooperation on Trade

60%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?

The successful conclusion of the TPP negotiations is indicative of progress in trade governance. The agreement, reached on October 5, hit an important moment of opportunity just prior to the elections in Canada in mid-October and upcoming US elections next year.

Regarding RCEP, Beijing hopes to finish negotiations this year, and the recent signing of the FTA between South Korea and China was perhaps a stepping stone for RCEP discussions. If agreed, the RCEP would link the 10 ASEAN member nations with Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, and would account for a third of global gross domestic product.

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the EU signed last year is nearing approval, pending ratification from the European parliament and EU member countries and Canadian federal and provincial approval, expected in 2016.

TTIP negotiations continue, and progress has been made regarding regulatory cooperation within the proposed agreement. This year talks have been moving more slowly than expected, in a large part due to issues surrounding food and agricultural interests, as well as dispute resolution. With 150,000 people marching against TTIP in Berlin, it is important to acknowledge the current public opinion regarding the trade partnership. EU consumer and citizen support for TTIP remains low, particularly in Germany. As talks continue, the goal remains to complete TTIP negotiations by the end of 2016; perhaps an ambitious goal given current public sentiment.

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

Cooperation on Climate Change

65%
Question: How much progress, on balance, has been made on climate change in the last year?

There has been some progress in climate change governance, and the recent US-China agreement could signal further progress. The “ambitious but achievable” jointly announced goals demonstrate encouraging developments in addressing climate issues. A new climate agreement expected from the December 2015 Paris Climate Conference would set a framework and precedence for a future, more binding and global climate agreement expected in 2020.

- Domenico Lombardi
Director of the Global Economy Program

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.