Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:
The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.
I think it was significant that G20 finance ministers and central bankers in September emphasized that monetary policy alone couldn’t achieve satisfactory economic growth. That said, a year after the G20 pledged to boost GDP, global growth actually slowed. Global institutions also apparently saw no need to even explain the chaotic monetary policy that came with the start of 2015. Confusion reigned, and global leaders did nothing about it.
The G20 appears to have effectively held the line on trade barriers and may even deserve some credit for avoiding a currency war. Recent G20 meetings appear to have quieted complaints about the Fed’s policies and doubts about China’s intentions. APEC appears serious about making sense of all the overlapping regional trade agreements. The Bali package notwithstanding, the absence of an obvious agenda for the WTO remains a negative.
Every major economy is talking seriously about climate change, which should count for something. India and Indonesia took advantage of lower oil prices to end fuel subsidies. The U.S. and China don’t agree on much, but they chose to make a statement on climate. Alberta elected a government that plans to be tougher on carbon emissions. All of this is happening in the backdrop of work by the UN, the IMF and the World Bank.
Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.
Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.
Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.
Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.
Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.
Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.
Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.
Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.
Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.
Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.