Javascript not enabled, please enable javascript in your browser to view this interactive feature.
Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Hailong Jin / 2015 Responses

Overall Ranking

36%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

55%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

The international use of the Chinese currency, renminbi, continues to develop rapidly, which further diversifies the international monetary system and reduces its inherent vulnerability known as the "Triffen dilemma". Moreover, the burgeoning of international financial institutions centered in emerging markets, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, increases the pricing power of these regions and partially rectifies price distortions in international trade. However, this new type of international monetary cooperation is still at its early stage and full of uncertainty.

- Hailong Jin
Research Consultant, Global Economy

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

35%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

The Basel III capital standards have been gradually implemented in emerging market economies. However, the problem lies in how to regulate the shadow banking system. In these regions, monetary policies are greatly influenced by their governments' economic growth concerns and can hardly be treated as independent. This makes their financial markets greatly distorted, and rating the quality of corporate and municipal equities in emerging market economies is extremely difficult.

- Hailong Jin
Research Consultant, Global Economy

Development

40%
Question: How much progress has been made in cooperation on international development in the last year?

The successful establishment of AIIB with leadership from China greatly promotes economic globalization and regional integration. However, the huge swings of the stock market and economic slowdown in China blurs its future.

- Hailong Jin
Research Consultant, Global Economy

Cooperation on Trade

N/A
No response was provided by Hailong Jin for this question.

Cooperation on Climate Change

15%
Question: How much progress, on balance, has been made on climate change in the last year?

Mitigation commitments negotiated by nations under the UNFCCC are still too weak to avoid the potential dangerous climate disruption in the future.

- Hailong Jin
Research Consultant, Global Economy

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.