The Doha round continues in its coma, and previously halting steps toward agreement on a TPP were, in my judgment, mildly negative for the multilateral governance of trade. They drew energy away from the WTO round; TPP might someday compel the excluded to make concessions in Geneva to get inside this large club; but creation of a rival institution and permanent fragmentation seem as likely. My judgment here is primarily relative to the goals of a multilateral institution strong enough to prevent major political conflicts over trade and promote efficient global resource allocation, and less directly relative to what these developments imply for macroeconomic conditions.

Members of the UN have come forward with national contributions as required by their agreed path toward a 2015 Paris agreement. There is still little evidence, however, that they will reach agreement on financing for developing countries, and without that it is hard to see the developing countries signing up in Paris. But the official UN agreement is only one level of global climate governance. Nations, provinces, cities, and partnerships of businesses and NGOs are also taking unilateral steps to reduce emissions and slow deforestation and have made quantitative pledges to do more. I feel mildly encouraged. My judgment here is primarily relative to goals of stabilizing the global climate while enabling development in the poorer countries, but long term global macroeconomic growth and stability are of course important too; we don’t want to shut down growth to stabilize the climate.