Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:
The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.
Progress on the Sustainable Development goals, including a focus on the urban and the cross-cutting theme of climate change has translated into modest improvements in the international governance of these issues. Dovetailing the development and climate change agendas in particular opens up avenues to deal with the multiple stressors faced by vulnerable communities as well as the opportunity to capitalize on co-benefits between these two, fundamentally interrelated, sets of priorities. The Green Climate Fund negotiated as part of the UNFCCC signals the potential to address the underlying development concerns (poverty, education, sanitation, food security) that deepen communities’ vulnerability to climate change. It is, however, only the first step towards a transfer of funds from developed to developing nations that adequately addresses the scale of the climate change risks in vulnerable regions.
Despite this progress inadequate attention is being paid to the climate/conflict nexus, as evidenced by the ongoing drought, conflict, and refugee crisis in Syria.
The recent deal between the US and China on emissions reductions was significant both in its substance and in its implications for the upcoming negotiations in Paris. This places increased pressure on other large emitters to make significant multi-lateral or bi-lateral progress towards greenhouse gas reductions. It also potentially staves off a measure of future economic uncertainty, by stimulating a shift towards decreased reliance on fossil fuels. Recent moves towards reducing or removing fossil fuel subsidies have a similarly transformative potential, but the federal election in Canada and the recent political shifts in Australia translate into uncertainty about the extent to which large emitters will authentically take on this task of reduced subsidies (i.e. with the various Canadian political parties making very different promises in this regard). National and sub-national efforts add additional momentum, including the province of Ontario’s plans to be a part of Quebec’s cap and trade system, the Dutch ruling that the government must cut carbon emissions by 25% in five years to protect its citizens. This latter decision sets a precedent for a legal approach to addressing climate change and supports the notion that each nation has a responsibility to manage this risk.
Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.
Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.
Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.
Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.
Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.
Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.
Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.
Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.
Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.
Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.