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Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Patrick Leblond / 2015 Responses

Overall Ranking

62%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

55%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

There is certainly a willingness to cooperate on macroeconomic issues, especially economic growth; however, the reality is that not much is happening on that front. There is no common attempt to reboot global economic growth at the G20, despite the rhetoric. In terms of monetary cooperation, there is nothing happening on that front from what I can observe. China has decided to unilaterally devalue its currency, which seems to have caught everyone by surprise. The euro zone and the US are continuing with monetary easing although there have been indications, at least in the US, that it would come to an end very soon. There are certainly no coordination attempts here. Finally, IMF reforms and sovereign debt restructuring also seem to be stuck, even if negotiations are ongoing.

- Patrick Leblond
CIGI Senior Fellow

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

75%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?

The FSB continues to perform its coordinating work as best as it can, given its lack of enforcement capability and small secretariat. It continues to pushes for regulation into new areas like shadow banking. So progress continues to be made but the main issue remains the "complete and consistent" implementation of international standards at the domestic level, though monitoring by the FSB and IMF helps identify inconsistencies.

- Patrick Leblond
CIGI Senior Fellow

Development

N/A
No response was provided by Patrick Leblond for this question.

Cooperation on Trade

55%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?

The calls for progress are there but the action is missing. It seems that implementation of the Bali package will take time. Reforms to the WTO's decision-making procedures remain at the proposal stage. Negotiations for bilateral or regional trade agreements like TTIP continue while there is no attempt to streamline the rules governing international trade at the WTO. This means that businesses are facing increasingly complex and overlapping rules when it comes to international trade. A point may soon be reached whereby the transactions costs associated with the "spaghetti bowl" may overcome the benefits associated with free trade agreements.

- Patrick Leblond
CIGI Senior Fellow

Cooperation on Climate Change

N/A
No response was provided by Patrick Leblond for this question.

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.