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Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Susan Schadler / 2015 Responses

Overall Ranking

54%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

54%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

The G20 remains a strange forum for global cooperation outside of crisis conditions. In non-crisis conditions, it clearly has yet to prove itself. Let’s take the main sub-headings for its efforts in the macroeconomic area.

Support for global economic growth and employment and mitigating inequality: this is probably the macroeconomic subheading where the most obvious effort has been made—in the form of the Comprehensive Growth Strategies for each country and target for raising global growth by 2 percentage points by 2018. The strategies mostly include some degree of detail on the gist of policy changes, but not really enough to make the full-scale assessments easy or particularly meaningful to do. The effort is not without merit, but one must hope that this is not an exercise that takes up valuable time of technocrats and that is more of a sales job than a substantive consideration of policies. The jury is still out on the strategies.

IMF Quota Reforms and Inclusion of Emerging Economies: the critical path here is US approval of the quota increase and reform. Realistically, the G20 can join the chorus of those chastising the US, but is unlikely to be better positioned than the many other institutions attempting to goad the US into action.

Accountability, inclusiveness, and effectiveness of IMF governance: Again, the G20 can join the chorus of critics, but has no particular leverage or position on this issue.

Sovereign debt crisis resolution: The IMF has a good proposal on the table for improving its mandate to address severe sovereign debt crises quickly and efficiently. It is not clear what the G20 has to add to this. The impediment to progress is all political—once again owing to the reluctance of the United States—and must be resolved within the IMF.

Surveillance under current frameworks (MAP, IMF surveillance) and commitment to appropriate domestic fiscal and monetary policies to foster stability in the international monetary system. Once again, outside of crisis conditions when the G20 can be an exceptionally effective forum, it is not clear what the G20 brings to these issues (in terms of either analysis or international dialogue) that the IMF does not have within its own structure.

In short, in the area of macroeconomic management the G20 has yet to find a distinct role for itself. A critical question is: how can the G20 remain a viable forum for the few (mainly crisis) conditions when it is truly useful while not, in calm periods, indulging in efforts that overlap with those of other institutions. Unless an answer to this question is found (at least as it relates to macroeconomic policy), the risk is that the G20 extinguishes itself or becomes a burden that actually impedes the success of other established institutions.

- Susan Schadler
CIGI Senior Fellow

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

N/A
No response was provided by Susan Schadler for this question.

Development

N/A
No response was provided by Susan Schadler for this question.

Cooperation on Trade

N/A
No response was provided by Susan Schadler for this question.

Cooperation on Climate Change

N/A
No response was provided by Susan Schadler for this question.

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.