2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance
2015 Responses by Expert
Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:
Participants:
Survey Home
Quantitative Summary
Qiyuan Xu
Qiyuan Xu / 2015 Responses
Overall Ranking
43%
The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.
Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation
N/A
No response was provided by Qiyuan Xu for this question.
International Cooperation on Financial Regulation
55%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?
From my view, for international finance system, there is little progress in IMF reforms. Although the platform of G20 has appealed many times for US to facilitate the IMF reforms, especially for the quota increase, there is no positive feedback. There is also uncertainty for the renminbi’s entrance into SDR basket. Emerging countries are still underrepresented in voice and influence, not only within the IMF but also in the World Bank. That’s why AMRO, the BRICS bank, AIIB and other new institutions are emerging. In this way, however, the global governance is split into regions or groups.
- Qiyuan Xu
Former CIGI Visiting Scholar
Development
N/A
No response was provided by Qiyuan Xu for this question.
Cooperation on Trade
30%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?
For the international trade system there is little progress. TPP, TTIP, RCEP, and others are indicative of more and more mega regional trade areas expected to be established in the near future, instead of a more powerful global governance mechanism like WTO.
In all, the global governance mechanism shows a trend of fragmentation, which means little progress or even some regression.
- Qiyuan Xu
Former CIGI Visiting Scholar
Cooperation on Climate Change
N/A
No response was provided by Qiyuan Xu for this question.
Progress Scale
Major Progress 85-100
Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.
Major Progress 80-100
Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.
Some Progress 70-84
Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.
Some Progress 60-79
Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.
Minimal Progress 55-69
Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Status Quo 45-54
Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.
Minimal Progress 40-59
Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Minimal Regression 30-44
Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.
Some Regression 20-39
Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.
Some Regression 15-29
Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.
Major Regression 0-14
Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.
Major Regression 0-19
Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.