2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance
2015 Responses by Expert
Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:
Participants:
Survey Home
Quantitative Summary
Harold James
Harold James / 2015 Responses
Overall Ranking
40%
The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.
Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation
10%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?
After a few years of skirmishing and anticipations, it looks as if there is a full blown process of competitive devaluation, or in other words currency wars. The IMF governance reform at the same time is stymied.
- Harold James
CIGI Senior Fellow
International Cooperation on Financial Regulation
20%
Question: How much progress has been made in international cooperation on financial regulation in the last year?
There are substantial doubts as to whether Basel III represents the best analytic framework.
- Harold James
CIGI Senior Fellow
Development
50%
Question: How much progress has been made in cooperation on international development in the last year?
- Harold James
CIGI Senior Fellow
Cooperation on Trade
50%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?
The world may be moving to a new regime of regional and bilateral agreements.
- Harold James
CIGI Senior Fellow
Cooperation on Climate Change
70%
Question: How much progress, on balance, has been made on climate change in the last year?
The announcements by China and the US are signs that the international community is beginning to take coordination on CO2 seriously.
- Harold James
CIGI Senior Fellow
Progress Scale
Major Progress 85-100
Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.
Major Progress 80-100
Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.
Some Progress 70-84
Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.
Some Progress 60-79
Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.
Minimal Progress 55-69
Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Status Quo 45-54
Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.
Minimal Progress 40-59
Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.
Minimal Regression 30-44
Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.
Some Regression 20-39
Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.
Some Regression 15-29
Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.
Major Regression 0-14
Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.
Major Regression 0-19
Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.