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Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

2015 Responses by Expert

Browse full survey responses from each expert by selecting their name below:

Survey Home Quantitative Summary

Paul Blustein / 2015 Responses

Overall Ranking

50%

The overall ranking represents the average of all responses provided by the expert — detailed responses to each dimension are provided below. Note that some participants provided their evaluation for a few dimensions only.

Macroeconomic and Financial Cooperation

40%
Question: How much progress has been made on macro-economic and international monetary cooperation in the last year?

The IMF has gotten a lot of credit over the past year for standing up to Europe in the euro zone crisis, by publicly insisting that Greece’s European creditors should give the country more debt relief. The IMF’s stance on this issue has by and large been commendable, and goes some distance toward rectifying the Fund’s subservience to Europe earlier in the crisis, which inflicted considerable damage on the Fund’s reputation and exacerbated its governance problem.

However, one series of recent events in the crisis threatens to cause further harm to the Fund’s ability to fulfill its international responsibilities, in ways that have gotten little notice in the public debate. I am referring to the fact that Greece failed to pay some of its obligations to the Fund on time, and came within a whisker of defaulting on a much more massive scale in mid-July when marathon negotiations over the terms of a new Greek bailout nearly broke down. The IMF’s loans to Greece are by far the biggest it has ever extended to any single country, and this episode cast into unprecedented doubt the Fund’s previously unquestionable ability to recover the money it lends. This could well make it more difficult in the future for the IMF to raise money from member countries. If that happened, the world might be deprived of an institution with the capacity to serve as a crisis fighter and manager.

- Paul Blustein
CIGI Senior Fellow

International Cooperation on Financial Regulation

N/A
No response was provided by Paul Blustein for this question.

Development

N/A
No response was provided by Paul Blustein for this question.

Cooperation on Trade

60%
Question: How much progress has been made in agreements on international trade rules and institutional architecture in the last year?

There were a few rays of hope for the WTO and the multilateral trading system this past year. About 50 countries agreed to expand and update the 1996 Information Technology Agreement, which lowers trade barriers for IT products; this year’s deal was the first WTO-sponsored pact in 18 years to lower tariffs. This was a salutary development showing that deals can be done in Geneva. The WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which was initially struck at the 2013 ministerial meeting in Bali, is back on track again after a U.S.-India deal removed a big obstacle; this too will help give a little boost of confidence to the WTO as an institution. These achievements shouldn’t be oversold—the Doha Round remains stuck, with little sign that it will start moving forward anytime soon. So in my opinion, the multilateral trading system remains in danger of eroding over the long run; the system badly needs to overhaul its rules to address new problems that have arisen since the organization was founded two decades ago. But just looking over the past year, at least things aren’t going in reverse. Perhaps the most significant recent development for trade policy is that President Obama won congressional approval for fast track “Trade Promotion Authority,” giving the administration the right to negotiate trade agreements without worrying that Congress will pick them apart with amendments. This will help restore U.S. leadership in the trade realm.

Although I realize my perspective is controversial, I think the successful conclusion of the TPP will pose a threat rather than a boon to the multilateral system. On the other hand, the TPP’s woes reflect the difficulties of conducting far-reaching trade negotiations. Another major regional trade deal, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, remains even less well advanced than the TPP.

- Paul Blustein
CIGI Senior Fellow

Cooperation on Climate Change

N/A
No response was provided by Paul Blustein for this question.

Progress Scale

Major Progress 85-100

Estimates between 85% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe, unanticipated major shock to the world economy, preventing sustained unemployment or inflation. International agreements are effective. Key institutions have strengthened their governance and accountability and have the tools and resources required to perform effectively.

Major Progress 80-100

Estimates between 80% and 100% represent the ability to withstand the pressures of a severe shock to the world economy and to prevent sustained unemployment or inflation.

Some Progress 70-84

Estimates between 70% and 84% reflect some progress that inspires confidence in the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks Conditions are conducive to inclusive global economic growth.

Some Progress 60-79

Estimates between 60% and 79% reflect conditions that inspire confidence and that are conducive to growth.

Minimal Progress 55-69

Estimates between 55% and 69% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in long term, sustainable balanced growth, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Status Quo 45-54

Estimates between 45 and 54% represent stagnation in progress or regression, with low to negligible developments in international discussions or a lack of displayed interest. Public documents exclude mention of the topic or pay minimal due to the issue, with little to no developments in stability or growth.

Minimal Progress 40-59

Estimates between 40% and 59% indicate a level of progress sufficient to inspire confidence in the long term, but with non-negligible risks to the world economy if confronted by shocks.

Minimal Regression 30-44

Estimates between 30 and 44% represent a level of regression sufficient to cause concern for the direction of long term growth. Conditions have not yet worsened significantly, but the global economy shows signs for concern.

Some Regression 20-39

Estimates between 20% and 39% represent some regression, pointing to non-negligible risks to the stability of the world economy if confronted by large-scale shocks.

Some Regression 15-29

Estimates between 15% and 29% represent some regression that instills concern for the stability of the world economy against large-scale shocks. Indications suggest insufficient progress and conditions unfavorable to long term growth.

Major Regression 0-14

Estimates between 0% and 14% represent major regression towards a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy. Multilateral negotiations are at a standstill, and key institutions lack the tools and resources to perform effectively.

Major Regression 0-19

Estimates between 0% and 19% represent major regression toward a fractious and chaotic international system, with significant risks to the stability of the world economy.